Blogs

  • Third Quarter update Sept 2018

    Posted Wed at 12:47 PM by Bruce Ingram

    The performance figures below show the share price changes since publication of the articles. The table is arranged in order of highest gainers to lowest. The accumulated dividends amount to 1.25% of the portfolio value. The total gain is 7.54% including dividends I model the portfolio in Morn...

  • Landmines wherever you look

    Posted Tue at 5:44 PM by Petri Redelinghuys

    One has to start wondering when our market is going to step on the next landmine. Over the last few months we have witnessed Steinhoff practically melt away into nothingness, EOH's share price collapsed, as well as Resilient Real Estate Investment Trust, Consolidated Investment Group, MTN, and ...

  • The Week Ahead of 18 September 2018

    Posted Sep 16 by Chris Gilmour

    South Africa will be lucky to escape the Emerging Market (EM) contagion currently caused by Turkey, Argentine and Venezuela. Last Thu, Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates by 6.25% to 24%. The Turkish lira has fallen some 40% since the beginning of the year and the central bank has now ...

  • Perfect storm

    Posted Sep 11 by Petri Redelinghuys

    And just as things started looking better... the perfect set of circumstances rears up its head and crushes no only the SA market, but emerging markets in general. A couple of things "went wrong" last week that took a number of people, including me, by surprise.  To keep it all in perspective ...

  • The Week Ahead of 11 September 2018

    Posted Sep 9 by Chris Gilmour

    US equity markets weakened last week in the face of growing trade tensions between the US and China. September and October are traditionally very volatile periods for the US stock market and 2018 is likely to be no exception. The big news of last week locally was the release of Q2 GDP numbers in SA...

  • Justice in Motion

    Posted Sep 7 by Chris Gilmour

    In early September, PSG hosted an outstanding series of presentations entitled “Justice in Motion” by well-known writer and broadcaster Justice Malala.  The essence of his presentation was a look back at what led up to the tumultuous events surrounding the election of Cyril Ramaphos...

  • The Trust Economy: Corporate Reporting's New Frontier

    Posted Sep 3 by Selabe Kute

    The scene was brimming with smiles and protruding chests, as the figurative confetti of integrating reporting grandeur showered down on Nedbank Group Ltd. The 2018 Excellence in Integrated Reporting Awards hosted by EY saw the banking group hoist the top award for its Integrated Report, beating ou...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 4 September 2018

    Posted Sep 3 by Steven Theunissen

    In a gruelling week of sporting action that produced many upsets, there was some outstanding entertainment on offer with plenty to keep your eye on in the week to come. Rugby After taking a break this past weekend, the Rugby Championship will return to your screens on Saturday with Argentina trave...

  • Why Tencent's regulatory hurdles matter

    Posted Sep 2 by Petri Redelinghuys

    We all know that Naspers owns about 1/3rd of Tencent and that Tencent is the biggest tech company in China. That is why when Tencent earnings come out, we all sit up and listen. What we might not have such a firm grasp on though, is the really the scale, or, the size of Tencent and its dominanc...

  • The Week Ahead of 4 September 2018

    Posted Sep 2 by Chris Gilmour

    Emerging Markets (EMs) remained under pressure last week and the ZAR fell again in line with EM weakness generally. We should remember that the EM economies currently taking strain typically all exhibit external weaknesses or fiscal imbalances, combined with a lack of foreign exchange reserves and ...

  • Climate change is a risk to your investments and retirement

    Posted Aug 31 by Greer Blizzard

    The risks that climate change poses to listed companies are ultimately financial risks to shareholders, especially those who are invested in pension funds. The growing incidence of such risks being realised is a very real threat to shareholder value, especially when it comes to long-term investing a...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 28 August 2018

    Posted Aug 27 by Steven Theunissen

    There was plenty of sporting action on offer over the last week with some of the main events including the Rugby Championship and the Formula One held at Spa in Belgium. It was a weekend to forget for South African Rugby fans, nonetheless, there were many other memorable moments, some of which are d...

  • The Week Ahead of 28 August 2018

    Posted Aug 26 by Chris Gilmour

    President Donald Trump stirred the pot on the land Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) debate in South Africa, with an ill-conceived tweet based on inaccurate and misleading news reports from the Fox TV network in the US. There was an oblique suggestion that the US might impose sanctions on SA ...

  • Shoprite earings crush and bounce

    Posted Aug 23 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Earnings season is upon us locally and has been creating a few very interesting opportunities. The one that stands out the most to me is Shoprite. A number of things stood out to me in their results. Firstly, the consumer is under a ton of pressure. Shoprite is mostly a cash business and operates in...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 21 August 2018

    Posted Aug 20 by Steven Theunissen

    In what was an exciting week of sporting action, there were some epic encounters over the last week that left sporting fanatics from across the globe breathless. A masterclass from Brandt Snedeker, some fancy footwork from Aphiwe Dyantyi and a dominant Novak Djokovic were just some of the dazzling d...

  • The Week Ahead of 21 August 2018

    Posted Aug 19 by Chris Gilmour

    The ZAR took a great deal of strain last week as emerging market (EM) contagion caught hold good and proper, catalyzed mainly by the decline in the Turkish lira. Most EM currencies were affected but the most acute declines were experienced by the ZAR, Russian rouble, Colombian peso and Argentine pes...

  • The Week Ahead of 14 August 2018

    Posted Aug 12 by Chris Gilmour

    The escalation of geopolitical rhetoric took a new turn this week with the US imposing sanctions on Russia as a result of the Novichok poisoning in Salisbury, England, earlier this year. The US also tightened sanctions on Iran and threatened Turkey with sanctions. The net effect from a South African...

  • Meredith: good dividend payer with significant growth potential

    Posted Aug 8 by Bruce Ingram

    What does Meredith Corporation do? MDP is a diversified digital and print media company which also owns 17 radio stations in the US. Meredith is the leader in creating and distributing content across platforms in key consumer interest areas such as food, home, parenting and lifestyle through well...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 7 August 2018

    Posted Aug 6 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action involved some highs and lows for South African supporters, with the main event being the Lions who faced off against the Crusaders in the Super Rugby Final. The Proteas were again in action over the weekend in the 3rd ODI against Sri Lanka and the sporting week was c...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Aug 5 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Federal Open Market Committee changed its narrative last week to reflect what it sees as a stronger US economy. There will likely be two more rate hikes in the US during the remainder of this year and another four in 2019. Against that type of background, the US economy will need to grow espe...

  • Iron Mountain Incorporated an income share with potential

    Posted Aug 2 by Bruce Ingram

    Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) is a document and data storage company with a colourful history. The company officially converted to a REIT in 2014. IRM initially started out as a document storage company it has since expanded to become one of the largest data storage centres in the world. To qu...

  • More tricky days ahead

    Posted Aug 1 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week our market traded very low volume, which I suppose is something that we are getting used too. I suppose it's also no surprise that our market is still range bound and largely directionless either. There has been some excitement though, most of it this week I'll admit. Yesterday aft...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jul 30 by Chris Gilmour

    The 10th BRICs summit took place in Johannesburg last week with a very pleasant precursor in the form of a promise by China to invest $15bn in SA. Details are sketchy but this comes hard on the heels of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent trip to the middle east, where similar-sized promises we...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 25 July 2018

    Posted Jul 23 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action from across the globe provided fans with plenty of high quality entertainment with some gruelling matchups between the biggest names of the sporting World. Rugby The highly anticipated Super Rugby playoffs commenced on Friday morning with South African Rugby love...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jul 22 by Chris Gilmour

    US economic data remains robust, even though American households are already having to pay more for imported consumer electronic goods originating in China, thanks to trade tariffs. Markets are still shrugging off concerns about trade wars, even though a growing body of observers, both US and elsewh...

  • Wading through the waters

    Posted Jul 19 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Financial markets are fickle things... the last few weeks have been, for our local market, really difficult. It may not be reflected as much in the level at which out Top 40 Index is trading, seeing as it is ranging sideways and not really making or losing much ground (and has been doing this for ab...

  • The business logic for sustainability

    Posted Jul 18 by Selabe Kute

    We get the Business case, but let's talk about the Business Logic for Sustainability.   If anyone were to ask the late American economist Milton Friedman what the purpose of business is, he would probably lean back on his nappa leather arm chair and retort, in a throaty Brooklyn accent, "to...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jul 15 by Chris Gilmour

    Geopolitical tensions remain high as we head further into the northern hemisphere summer. Trade remains top of mind among economists and the concern is that full scale trade wars may not now be far away. While global equity markets have tended to shrug off these concerns, seeing them as merely negot...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jul 8 by Chris Gilmour

    Global financial markets face a delicious dilemma: while trade tensions dominate and are beginning to assume alarming proportions, economic data points to a booming US economy, including a superficially healthy labour market. A full-on global trade war would probably result in stagflation for the gl...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jul 1 by Chris Gilmour

    The JSE and other emerging markets fell sharply on Mon Jun 25 amid mounting concerns surround the scale of possible trade wars. Emerging market currencies fell sharply as well and the rand was especially hard hit due to its very high tradeability. The rand is often seen a proxy for em...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jun 24 by Chris Gilmour

    During the second quarter of this year,  investors and speculators alike have endured unexpectedly soft economic conditions, apart from the US. There have been major disruptions in several emerging-market economies (such as Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina), political instability in southern Eur...

  • Sport in an INCEtanat! 22 June 2018

    Posted Jun 21 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week saw the commencement of the Soccer World Cup held in Russia, which has generated enough talking points over the course of the week for sporting fans around the World. That being said, there were plenty other memorable moments that unfolded during the week, and you can rest assured that the...

  • Stay Woke: Making Sense of Shareholder Activism

    Posted Jun 20 by Selabe Kute

    The irrepressible former French statesman and relic of all things revolutionary, Napoleon Bonaparte, once uttered, "power is my mistress. I have worked too hard at her conquest to allow anyone to take her away from me". His brazen meditation on the addictive and possessive relationship that those ...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jun 17 by Chris Gilmour

    The US FOMC increased rates by 25bp last week and the hawkish tone in the narrative suggests another two interest rate hikes this year. The ECB, meanwhile, is only looking to Sep 2019 for its first rate hike. President Trump finally met with Kim Jong-Un last week and appeared to have struck a deal ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 15 June 2018

    Posted Jun 14 by Steven Theunissen

    The Fifa World Cup is finally here with the whole World drawn to each and every game of this sporting phenomenon. While the World Cup may dominate headlines over the next month, there is still plenty other action around the World to captivate the hearts and souls of sporting fans across the globe. ...

  • A look back at Share Picks USA recent performance

    Posted Jun 13 by Bruce Ingram

    Recently I have been struggling to find value in Dividend Growth Stocks for the growth portfolio. So instead of writing about a specific share I decided to take a backward look at how the shares are performing since publication on Share Picks USA. I also briefly discuss the difference between Divid...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted Jun 10 by Chris Gilmour

    First quarter GDP figures in SA were much worse than expected-in fact more than four times worse than expected, with the consensus view being for a contraction of 0.5% and the actual coming in at -2.2%. Agriculture was the main culprit, coming off a very high base in 2017. With the impact of that ba...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 8 June 2018

    Posted Jun 7 by Steven Theunissen

    There are many exciting sporting match-ups to look forward to over the next week as well as some moments to reflect on from the week past. The sporting World is now eagerly awaiting the kick-off of the 2018 Fifa World Cup, which gets underway in just six days. Below is a quick recap of last week&rsq...

  • The semantics of stakeholder communications

    Posted Jun 4 by Selabe Kute

    A consortium of Maserati-wielding property developers is funding the construction of a new multi-storey shopping complex in a working-class suburb of central Johannesburg. Large retail chains are salivating at the prospect of opening their swanky boutiques and artisanal coffee shops while property-p...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 27 by Chris Gilmour

    After US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled his planned meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on Jun 12, Kim and his South Korean counterpart President Moon Jae-in hastily convened a meeting on Sat 26 Jun, after which it was announced that a Trump/Kim meeting might still ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 25 May 2018

    Posted May 24 by Steven Theunissen

    The last seven days on the sporting field provided viewers around the World with action packed drama as many seasons are now drawing to a conclusion. There are some exciting prospects to look forward to in the next month, and below is my take on what’s happened in the last week,...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 20 by Chris Gilmour

    The trade talks between the US and China ended on Sat 19 May. Initial reactions were mildly positive but not enough detail was available to make definite conclusions. It is clear, however, that both sides want to avoid a trade war and that all efforts are being made in this direction. The Chinese ha...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 18 May 2018

    Posted May 17 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week’s sporting action produced some major upsets but nonetheless, offered a great spectacle for fans! Rugby, golf, soccer and tennis all produced some very interesting results which I’ll go through with you, as well as highlighting some of the best entertainment on offer in the wee...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 13 by Chris Gilmour

    US President Donald Trump’s administration re-imposed sanctions on Iran, though this action ahead of the May 12 deadline was widely anticipated. Most European countries are unlikely to follow suit and theoretically they could be in the US “firing line” for such non-compliance with ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 11 May 2018

    Posted May 10 by Steven Theunissen

    Over the past week, sporting fanatics around the globe were treated to entertainment of the highest quality. For some, the last week provided many reasons to celebrate, while others would have been left feeling empty with many vital match-ups having taken place across many sporting events. Rugby ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 6 by Chris Gilmour

    The oil price hovered around $75/bbl towards the end of last week ahead of the May 12 deadline for the US and other countries to reimpose sanctions on Iran. This appears to be the main factor affecting the oil price though there are many other contributing factors that cannot be ignored. One of the...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 4 May 2018

    Posted May 3 by Steven Theunissen

    The sporting World was set alight last week with many moments of sheer brilliance. Here is my recap of some of the highlights of the last seven days of action, coupled with a few events to keep your eye on! Rugby With the Springbok series against England in June now just around the corner, many ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Apr 29 by Chris Gilmour

    Global geopolitical tensions cooled markedly last week with the historic meeting of the leaders of North and South Korea in Seoul, the first such meeting in the 65 years since the end of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. While it is too early to become overly-enthusiastic about the potential outc...

  • Sport in an INCEtant 27 April 2018

    Posted Apr 26 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week was full of action packed drama which featured massive blows in the IPL, breath-taking goals in the Champions League and draw dropping brilliance on the rugby field. Here’s what this week’s major talking points were, and a few events to look out for in the week to come. Rugby ...

  • Snap-on; an undervalued dividend paying share with good upside

    Posted Apr 26 by Bruce Ingram

    Snap-on was founded in 1920 and is a $3.7 billion revenue company with a $8.7B Market Cap. It has been paying dividends since 1939. The dividends have increased for the last 9 years. About Snap-on: Snap-on Incorporated is a leading global innovator, manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, d...

  • 2018 in context

    Posted Apr 22 by Petri Redelinghuys

    2018 has seen the return of volatility. Over the last few years, markets and market participants have become somewhat complacent in the comfort of a low volatility upward driving market environment. Focusing on the US market in particular, the S&P500 hadn't had a move, up or down, in excess of 1% fo...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Apr 22 by Chris Gilmour

    At its annual spring meeting in Washington last week, the IMF affirmed its positive sentiment toward strong and sustained synchronized global economic growth. Notwithstanding this optimism, a growing body of observers is starting to question whether or not this can indeed be sustained.  An exce...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 20 April 2018

    Posted Apr 19 by Steven Theunissen

    The last seven days in the sporting World proved to be highly significant for some, as trophies were lifted and medals awarded, while others had to seek comfort in the all-too-familiar phrase, “next time, it’s ours”. Here is my summary of the highs and lows of last week’s spo...

  • US earnings season should give some direction

    Posted Apr 18 by Petri Redelinghuys

    For the last few weeks markets have been somewhat sideways and directionless. Over and above, volumes traded in SA have been really low. I think that this is due to two main factors. First, Ramaphosa euphoria is starting to wane a little as the focus is now shifting to actual policy implimentation ...

  • AT&T an undervalued high yield share for the income investor

    Posted Apr 18 by Bruce Ingram

    AT&T is the worlds largest telecoms company. The company has been in existence since 1875. The company provides fixed and mobile telephone services, data and internet services as well as pay-TV. The company operates distinct business units: The following is an extract from their website AT&T Comm...

  • A bucket list tickoff - St Kilda

    Posted Apr 17 by Chris Gilmour

    St Kilda is an uninhabited volcanic archipelago in the north Atlantic, about 50 miles west of the Western Isles off the Scottish coast. A dual World Heritage Site, it has recently been opened up to limited tourist access during the summer months and is well worth a visit. In 2005 St Kilda became one...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Apr 15 by Chris Gilmour

    Geopolitical tensions erupted last week with the west bombing Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in Syria. Just prior to that, the US helped to significantly weaken the Russian rouble (RUB) by effectively applying sanctions on Russian company Rusal plc, a Eurobond-iss...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 13 April 2018

    Posted Apr 12 by Steven Theunissen

    This week’s action had many highs and lows with people around the World waiting in anticipation across all sporting events. We heard tremendous roars from the crowd-laden fairways of Augusta, coupled with tears at the start line of the De Brabantse Pijl as the cycling World mourned the loss of...

  • Investing business plan

    Posted Apr 11 by Bruce Ingram

    Summary Brief comment on the US market and why I am holding back on trading. The need for an Investing Business Plan is discussed   With the recent US market decline are shares now fairly valued? In my opinion the market is still overpriced. The S&P 500 has declined by 10% from its hi...

  • Whisky Galore in Scotland

    Posted Apr 10 by Chris Gilmour

    Recounting the title of an old black and white movie from the 1940s, I recently visited a collection of single malt distilleries in an around the Tarbat Peninsula in the far north-east of Scotland. The main towns here are Tain and Alness and the three best known brands are Glenmorangie, Dalmore and ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Apr 8 by Chris Gilmour

    From a trading perspective, last week’s “big news” was the S&P 500 breaking down below its 200-day moving average after having been above it for 442 days consecutively. Logically, this suggests weakness, but historical studies suggest otherwise. In other words, if all the instances...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 5 April 2018

    Posted Apr 5 by Steven Theunissen

    Another week's worth of sporting greatness has flown by, with some memorable moments that will be remembered by sport fanatics for many years to come! The World was treated to some momentous match-ups, which lived up to all expectations. This week's journey took us from delightful finesse at The Wan...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Apr 1 by Chris Gilmour

    Although the prospect of an all-out trade war between the US and China abated somewhat last week, continued nervousness and thus heightened volatility is expected on this front for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, unless inflation and interest rates soar unexpectedly and a genuine trade war doe...

  • Before you go on holiday...

    Posted Mar 29 by Martin Grobler

    You have booked that trip, researched the must-see attractions, recharged all your electronic devices, packed your bags and now... it's the evening just before you leave on holiday; the day before you leave for that long-overdue vacation you've been dreaming of for months. Are you ready? Before you...

  • Interest rate outlook

    Posted Mar 28 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Later today we will be hearing form the South African Reserve Bank whether or not we will be getting some relief in the form of an interest rate cut. It’s a fairly fine line for them to walk, although my thinking is that they will likely cut the interest rate by 0.25% - 0.5%.   The way ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! March 27 2018

    Posted Mar 28 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action will largely be remembered for a highly controversial encounter between The Proteas and Australia which has undoubtedly left a bitter taste in the mouths' of all who have heard the news or seen the footage. Nonetheless, there were many other great match-ups, on which...

  • AbbVie a drug manufacturer with a bigger than 4% dividend yield

    Posted Mar 28 by Bruce Ingram

    AbbVie takes a double whammy price hit, could this be the time to buy? AbbVie is a drug manufacturer that was spun off from Abbot Laboratories in 2013. Last week the US markets dropped more than 6%. On top of that AbbVie announced the slowing down of trials due to disappointing results, on a drug...

  • Dodging the ratings bullet

    Posted Mar 25 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Moody's kept our sovereign rating unchanged on Friday night, which was largely expected by the majority of market analysts. The upside surprise was the they had changed their outlook from negative to stable, which means that the likelyhood of another downgrade in the near future has diminished ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Mar 25 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Fed’s FOMC met for the first time last week under the chairmanship of Jay Powell. As expected, rates were increased by 25bp and the likelihood is that there will be another two or even three more hikes of the same magnitude this year. Powell also mentioned that there are likely to be th...

  • Understanding Naspers

    Posted Mar 22 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Naspers has become a bit of a focal point over the last few weeks. Most recently Nasper came under a lot of selling pressure when Tencent released their quarterly results and missed topline revenue expectations. Yesterday the stock sold off about 6.5%, about 1.5% more than what Tencent had come of a...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Mar 18 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets appear to have largely shrugged off the possibility of large-scale trade wars breaking out, though nervousness and caution still prevail. The coming week contains plenty of economic data and important meetings, notably the Fed’s first FOMC meeting under the chairmanship ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Mar 11 by Chris Gilmour

    As mentioned in last week’s note, the possibility of trade retaliation has started to rear its ugly head, catalyzed by the Trump administration proposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. As yet, the rhetoric is louder than any actions but this issue must be watched closely, as it could...

  • Cutting through the noise

    Posted Mar 8 by Petri Redelinghuys

    We often get caught up in the noise that the market creates. Noise, simply put, is news and other short term information that goes around. In essense, people get excited about things over the short term, news agencies need readers, TV stations need viewers, radio stations need content. This means th...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Mar 4 by Chris Gilmour

    President Cyril Ramaphosa reshuffled his cabinet late on Mon night. This was a compromise reshuffle that left many incompetent ministers still inside cabinet and made no attempt to reduce the size of the overall cabinet. The president was obviously negotiating widely within the ANC NEC up to the ann...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Feb 25 by Chris Gilmour

    The global economic growth outlook still appears to be intact, with inflation only making a moderate reappearance. Interestingly, at a Bidcorp presentation last week, CEO Bernard Berson stated that global food inflation remained low but with huge fluctuations in certain foodstuffs. Massmart CEO Guy ...

  • Selling the fact

    Posted Feb 20 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was a historic week for South Africa. Not only has Zuma become the only person in the whole world to be fired by his own parlamaint twice (once as Deputy by his President and once as President by his Deputy), but we also have a new president and are finally seeing some arrests taking place...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Feb 16 by Chris Gilmour

    The momentous events unfolding in South Africa last week clouded almost everything else in the media. But eventually, Cyril Ramaphosa was installed as President and he delivered an outstanding State of the Nation Address in parliament on Fri 16 Feb. This was a business-friendly speech from a busines...

  • Markets last week

    Posted Feb 13 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It has been a mightly long time since we say a sell off like the one we saw last week. Locally, our market corrected a further 3000 points to make 2 consecutive weeks of bloodshed. Globally, markets sold off as well. It's amazing sometimes what can be ascribed as the catalysts for these moves. The r...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Feb 11 by Chris Gilmour

    February has been especially poor for global equity markets. All of the euphoria that was so apparent in late 2017 and into January of this year has all evaporated, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a real roller-coaster ride last week. Volatility came back with a vengeance as a...

  • PSGAM Outlook 2018

    Posted Feb 7 by Chris Gilmour

    PSG Asset Management (PSGAM) gave an outstanding presentation to clients on Wed 7 Feb in Johannesburg. Known for their contra-cyclical approach to investing, CIO Greg Hopkins and Portfolio Manager Shaun le Roux gave their outlook for 2018. And what a view it was-very different to the herd mentality ...

  • Why the American market?

    Posted Feb 5 by Bruce Ingram

    Owens & Minor - an undervalued gem Owens & Minor, Inc. is a global healthcare logistics company with limited competition. Market cap is $1,3bil, in existence for more than 135 years and has a decades long history of increasing dividends. Currently this share is significantly undervalued. It has a ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Feb 4 by Chris Gilmour

    US nonfarm payrolls in Jan were 200 000, well ahead of the consensus figure of 188 000. The narrowly defined unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with the broader rate, which includes discouraged jobseekers, moving slightly higher to 8.2%. Most importantly, wage growth came in at 2.9%, the highest fi...

  • If you sell, sell!

    Posted Jan 30 by Brian Chernotsky

    As we are all now aware, we are experiencing one of the toughest markets in years and so, due to consulting with the experts of the industry we will explain to you how in 99% of cases you can achieve the best offer out of this market. If you decide to sell your property, get the most active agents ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Jan 28 by Chris Gilmour

    At the Allan Gray investment conference in late August last year, American economist Todd Bucholz laid out some clear guidelines that investors should observe when attempting to discern the likely direction of global equity markets. Bucholz reckoned that as long as inflation remained relatively low ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted Jan 23 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The observation I can make about the last week in general is that it feels like the volatility and volume are coming back. It seems that conditions in our market are improving. it helps of course that last week we saw a growing positive sentiment towards South Africa in general. The Cyril Ramaphosa ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Jan 21 by Chris Gilmour

    The positive momentum of recent weeks on the global economy front continued last week with the release of China’s Q4 2017 and full year (FY) 2017 figures. At 6.9%, 2017 FY growth was well ahead of government estimates. It is also the first time since 2010 that the Chinese economy has expanded ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted Jan 14 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, what a week it has been! I guess that if this is the pace that has been set for the year we are in for a very excititng year. Overall, the late December and early January period was probably not too far from the normal Christmas / New Years routine. Marets where thin and bullish. The Santa ra...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Jan 14 by Chris Gilmour

    From a global economic perspective, both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM) are moving nicely into 2018, in the first sustained period of synchronized growth since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. And while inflation has remained stubbornly low in the past few years, it seems...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted Jan 7 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets, as anticipated, began the year on a positive note. This is sometimes referred to as “The January Effect”, as the start of the year often reflects optimism. 2018 is likely to be no exception, as President Trump’s tax reforms begin to kick in and in the process...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 30, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets ended 2017 at record levels, with the MSCI World Index up 22% to finish at 514.53. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) finished up 26% higher and London’s FTSE 100 rose by 7.6% to a new high. Perhaps a just a note of realism should be injected here-the FTSE 100 is sti...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 23, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The Week Ahead 23 Dec 2017   As 2017 draws to a close, economic and financial activity slows down. Politically, there is still a lot going on, and many of the issues that were in the headlines at the beginning of the year are still haunting politicians and economists alike. Brexit negotiatio...

  • Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually

    Posted December 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually The news late on Mon 18 Dec that Cyril Ramaphosa had won the election for the13th Presidency of the ANC was met with a huge amount of relief by people in the business community. The rand strengthened significantly and shares dependent on South Africa Incorpor...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 17, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week the US Fed increased short term interest rates by 25 basis points and the likelihood is that there will be a further three rates hikes of the same magnitude in 2018, two in 2019 and two in 2020. The Bank of England left rates unchanged, as did the European Central Bank (ECB). While the ECB...

  • US Interest Rate Hike

    Posted December 14, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Federal Reserve (The Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as was widely anticipated.It also signalled three 25bp rises next year, two in 2019 and two in 2020. Outgoing Fed chairman Janet Yellen is happy that synchronised global growth will continue over the forecast period and that...

  • October Retail Sales

    Posted December 13, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    SA Retail Sales figures from Stats SA were published today at 13:00. While still in positive territory in real terms, a noticeable slowdown is apparent compared with the previous two months. Year on year growth of 3.2% in Oct compared with restated 5.7% in Sep and 5.4% in Aug. General dealers and re...

  • Markets last week - the Steinhoff show

    Posted December 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Wow! One of the only things I think I can really say. Last week was probably one of the most insane weeks I have ever seen in my life. First and foremost, the Steinhoff move. Never have I ever seen a company as big as Steinhoff fall so hard in such a short period of time. Allogations of balance she...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 10, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was dominated by the spectacular collapse of Steinhoff, which will probably go down in JSE history as its largest corporate scandal. We are far from having all the relevant facts to hand regarding what resulted in CEO Markus Jooste’s sudden resignation but what little we do have sugg...

  • Markets last week

    Posted December 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The breakneck pace at which things changed accelerated last week with the Rand continueing its charge during the course of last week. We saw relentless pressure on tech stocks the world over and at home in Naspers, which dragged the overall index down. This was spurred on by resources stocks coming ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 3, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On Sat 2 Dec, Republicans in the US Senate managed a narrow victory regarding President Trump’s tax reforms, ending the debate with a 51-49 win. This gives the president enough time to sign the tax reform bill into law before year end. All other things being equal, this should lend some stimul...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 27, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, where to start? The biggest news is of course that ratings agencies delivered their outlook on South Africa on Friday night. I think maybe we should spend some time trying to understand what had happened. First of all, the market reaction from the Rand was outside of what I had expected would...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 26, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    All eyes were on the release of Moody’s and S&P’s ratings decisions on Fri Nov 24. We had to wait until after the close of markets in New York, thanks to an EU directive on ratings agency releases. There were mixed blessings; S&P downgraded SA’s foreign currency denominated debt by...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was full of exciting events! The most notable for me was Naspers. Tencent had reported quarterly results, which were ahead of expectations, as well as Naspers putting out a trading statement on earnings and a trading statement saying that they will be listing some ADR's in London (this is ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was a tumultuous one in southern African politics, as Robert Mugabe’s ruinous 37 year-old reign was brought to an end by the Zimbabwean military. This unexpected turn of events could have far-reaching effects in and beyond Zimbabwe. And although Mugabe delivered a defiant address on ...

  • The return of market volume

    Posted November 16, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So I don't want to get too optimistic too quickly, but Ihave noticed that the volumes trading though the market has picked up a little in recent weeks. The JSE is by no means trading the volumes it was a year ago, but we are up from trading 1/3rd of the volume to trading 2/3rds of the volume. So it ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 7, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    My apologies for updating this so late. Nonetheless, herewith the summary of what I believe had a major influence in moving markets last week in terms of macro events and happenings from around the world.  On Monday we saw SA Private sector credit growing by 5.59% vs 5.19% expectatio...

  • Seemingly unstoppable train

    Posted October 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    In preparation for the upcoming week, it helps to unpack some of the events that took place last week in order to aid with building road maps for what to expect in the week to come. Hence the weekly recap of what happened last week. So when looking at last week, there are a few themes that stood o...

  • What moved the market last week

    Posted October 22, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Although there are certainly many things that I miss each week, there are always a few things that stand out when I think back. The first of these for the week just past was continued robust performance from commodities and commodity stocks. This I believe was a spill over of the better than expecte...

  • South African Retail Sales August

    Posted October 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Stats SA released the retail sales figures for August on Tue 17 Oct. These and the previous few months' figures are confusing , to say the least. On a month on month basis, they increased by 2.4% and on a year on year basis, they were up 5.5%. Remember, these are real figures, after deducting inflat...

  • FTSE 100 hits record high

    Posted October 12, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The UK's FTSE 100 index hit a new record high of 7 556 on Thu 12 Oct as UK/EU Brexit talks appeared deadlocked. This in turn led to a weaker GBP which in turn led to the FTSE going higher, as the FTSE's composition is very heavily weighted to foreign companies with USD-denominated earnings. This ...

  • Don't cross the Bitcoin prophets

    Posted October 9, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Money functions as a measure of price, a medium of exchange and a store of value. Money evolves all the time. From sea shells to electronic cards money has taken many forms. To measure; store and act as medium of exchange there is a huge amount of trust required. Trust is the main criteria for so...

  • Unwitting holder of Novus shares

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    When I opened my most recent share trading statement I was surprised to find that I am a proud shareholder of Novus Holding shares. I called up my bank to report possible fraud on my account and was informed that all Naspers shareholders gained a proportion of Novus shares due to an unbund...

  • Up, up and away!

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So uuhm, I don't mean to brag, but in the blog I wrote in February, I'd reasoned that it is raltively safe for us to stay bullish and get long resources... well, well, well... what do you know?   A lot has changed though. The most recent things that I think are potential drivers of the market...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester (2)

    Posted October 4, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On the occasion of what should have been the most important speech of her political life, Theresa May’s address to the Conservative Party Conference at Manchester was a farce-a complete and unmitigated disaster. To be fair, it was not May’s fault, as the content of her speech (for those ...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester

    Posted October 1, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Following on from the successful Liberal Democrat annual conference in Bournemouth and the equally successful Labour Party conference in  Brighton last month, beleaguered Conservative Party leader Theresa May kicks off her party’s conference in working-class Manchester on October 1, her 6...

  • Merkel's authority weakened after elections

    Posted September 25, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Politics dominated the weekend, with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) getting the largest share of the vote in the German general election but falling far short of an overall majority with around 33% of the popular vote. Martin Schulz of the second placed SPD (on 20.7%) has ruled...

  • How Section 12J VCC mitigate risk when investing

    Posted September 22, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    To protect South African investors Section 12J Venture Capital Companies, (VCC's) are highly regulated and require licenses from both the South African Revenue Service and Financial Services Board. When assessing section 12J funds to invest in, conducting a high level due diligence on the VCC is ...

  • Maintaining the status quo

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The MPC was split 3:3 in its decision to maintain the repo rate at 6.75%. This is not surprising, given the wide variety of factors affecting the decision, as set out in my previous article. Most economists are confidently predicting that the MPC will cut tates by 25 basis points at its November mee...

  • Big day ahead

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It is not often that we see such a convergence of big events. Last night we saw the FED (US Central Bank) keep interest rates unchanged, although move toward balance sheet reduction. What this means in lamens terms is that the FED will start selling off the bonds that they bought during their massiv...

  • Will they, won't they?

    Posted September 20, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The SARB's Monetary Policy Committee has been deliberating on interest rates today and will continue tomorrow until around 15:00, when SARB governor Kganyago will deliver the MPC's decision. In the wake of the lower than anticipated CPI print of 4.8% that came out today, perhaps the MPC will, afte...

  • Discovery Results Presentation

    Posted September 18, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Discovery CEO Adrian Gore gave another virtuoso performance to members of the Investment Analyst Society at the Wanderers Club yesterday. Some years ago I was let into a little secret about how seriously Adrian takes these presentations. My source, a former director of Discovery, informed me that ...

  • Take advantage of Section 12J tax relief

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Take advantage of 12J tax relief while investing in disruptive technology. Investing in a Section 12J company gives investors access to sectors that are limited or non-existent in the listed space on the JSE. The appeal of investing in a Venture Capital Company (VCC) is not limited to the tax bre...

  • What companies a Section 12J VCC can invest in

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE |Connect

      When looking at the investment rules of Section 12J, Venture Capital Companies follow a strict and clearly defined set of regulations, as well as follow their own mandates for selection of investments. For example, a Section 12J Venture Capital Company's overriding strategy is to provide g...

  • What is Section 12J?

    Posted September 7, 2017 by INCE |Connect

      What is a Section 12J Venture Capital Company and how does it benefit tax payers? One of the main challenges to the economic growth of small and medium-sized businesses and junior mining exploration is access to equity finance. To assist these sectors in terms of equity finance, in 2009 t...

  • Times like these....

    Posted August 30, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Lunch time on a random Tuesday in August (the 29th to be exact). R5.6bln rand has exhanged hands on the JSE so far today. It sounds like a lot, although in truth is that it is very little when compared to historic volumes. Usually the JSE does around R25bln a day (sometimes as high as R32bln), altho...

  • Why you can’t afford not to have a tax-free savings account

    Posted August 18, 2017 by Igor Rodionov

    National Savings month has passed, and August brings us half way through the tax year. We thought this is a great opportunity to write about Tax-Free Savings to remind you to use your annual contribution limits. Most South Africans use money market or fixed deposit accounts for their saving needs...

  • End of 159 Year Old Stuttafords

    Posted August 2, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    The tragedy of business failure. After 159 years (since 1858) luxury department store in SA, Stuttafords, closed down for good today. A sorry tale of bad blood between shareholders (Ellerines and Rubensteins) who couldn't agree on how to address the crisis of the weakening ZAR, sluggish SA economy ...

  • Things are tough out there

    Posted July 18, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    I would love to say that it has been a wild couple of weeks. I mean, there have been some moves from stocks if you consider the shear size of the moves that have been taking place in the markets. However, I can't say that it has been a good couple of weeks simply because I am starting to get really ...

  • Frustrating times

    Posted May 31, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The last few weeks, or month and a bit, have been incredibly frustrating in the markets. There is very little volume/liquidity on the JSE, so it's been the stuff of nightmares for traders. I'm not really sure why there is such little volume being traded, but from what I have been hearing, it is the ...

  • So much noise... it's all about France

    Posted April 28, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Long weekends abound... one would think that the market takes it easy in April as most people tend too. But no, the market has been pretty busy. I think though, what I am starting to learn, is that the market is pretty much always busy.   I often think that 'once this xyz event passes, things...

  • Crazy times

    Posted March 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Geez what a day!    This market of ours is being thrown around from pillar to post thanks to all the politcal shenanigans that are going on. Some massive moves in the Rand, which leads to massive moves in the underlying market. Frankly it's been a little scary. To think that one man and ...

  • Interest rate divergence bodes bullish

    Posted March 23, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, it's been a busy time for me over the last few weeks. I've been meaning to air out some ideas around interest rates and have not yet really had the time to sit down and do it until now. Sign of the times I suppose. Even though the volumes trading through the market are not all that high, there...

  • The world is partying without us

    Posted March 1, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It seems that almost the entire world is throwing a big party and we are not invited. The US markets are trading at all time highs. In fact, it set yet another record today. The FTSE recently broke a 10 year, yes, 10 year resistance level and has traded up into record high territory. The German ma...

  • What is EasyEquities?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Hi and welcome, thank you for stopping by and reading this post.    In this blog post we will be telling you more about EasyEquities and how easy it is to invest in your favourite companies and brands. But before we begin and for those that are not yet investing or perhaps just star...

  • Is it safe to stay bullish?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    US Markets, for the most part, are at all time record highs and are currently in the second longest bull market in history. This is making a great deal of people very bearish, as I suppose, one can understand. The question that I am faced with at the moment though is; do I stay long, or do I move th...

  • African Phoenix

    Posted February 2, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

      So African Phoenix is here and had a rather unspectacular first day of trading. When the stock was still known as ABIL, it closed at 31c and after trading on the 1st of Feb for the first time in a long while, it closed the day at 52c after having traded slightly over 73 million shares for ...

  • What to do ahead of Trump's inauguration

    Posted January 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So Trump day is finally here. Later today Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States. I've heard pretty much every conspiracy theory possible so far about what is going to, or could happen today. I'm not sure that I am in the same camp as so many who expect total chaos to unfold...

  • Is chicken in trouble?

    Posted January 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So... Astral Foods just released a statement basically saying that if Eskom cuts off their power due to the manucipality not paying it's electric bill, it would spell disaster for the company. This, linked with stories about potential strike action in the sector due to the importing of chicken from ...

  • Rules for investing in the stock market

    Posted December 19, 2016 by INCE |Connect

    While it may be true that in the stock market arena there is no rule without an exception, here are some principles that may be tough to dispute. Let's quickly go through a few general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view.   1. Tr...