Blogs

  • Selling the fact

    Posted Tue at 6:16 PM by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was a historic week for South Africa. Not only has Zuma become the only person in the whole world to be fired by his own parlamaint twice (once as Deputy by his President and once as President by his Deputy), but we also have a new president and are finally seeing some arrests taking place...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 16 by Chris Gilmour

    The momentous events unfolding in South Africa last week clouded almost everything else in the media. But eventually, Cyril Ramaphosa was installed as President and he delivered an outstanding State of the Nation Address in parliament on Fri 16 Feb. This was a business-friendly speech from a busines...

  • Markets last week

    Posted February 13 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It has been a mightly long time since we say a sell off like the one we saw last week. Locally, our market corrected a further 3000 points to make 2 consecutive weeks of bloodshed. Globally, markets sold off as well. It's amazing sometimes what can be ascribed as the catalysts for these moves. The r...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 11 by Chris Gilmour

    February has been especially poor for global equity markets. All of the euphoria that was so apparent in late 2017 and into January of this year has all evaporated, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a real roller-coaster ride last week. Volatility came back with a vengeance as a...

  • PSGAM Outlook 2018

    Posted February 7 by Chris Gilmour

    PSG Asset Management (PSGAM) gave an outstanding presentation to clients on Wed 7 Feb in Johannesburg. Known for their contra-cyclical approach to investing, CIO Greg Hopkins and Portfolio Manager Shaun le Roux gave their outlook for 2018. And what a view it was-very different to the herd mentality ...

  • Why the American market?

    Posted February 5 by Bruce Ingram

    Owens & Minor - an undervalued gem Owens & Minor, Inc. is a global healthcare logistics company with limited competition. Market cap is $1,3bil, in existence for more than 135 years and has a decades long history of increasing dividends. Currently this share is significantly undervalued. It has a ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 4 by Chris Gilmour

    US nonfarm payrolls in Jan were 200 000, well ahead of the consensus figure of 188 000. The narrowly defined unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with the broader rate, which includes discouraged jobseekers, moving slightly higher to 8.2%. Most importantly, wage growth came in at 2.9%, the highest fi...

  • If you sell, sell!

    Posted January 30 by Brian Chernotsky

    As we are all now aware, we are experiencing one of the toughest markets in years and so, due to consulting with the experts of the industry we will explain to you how in 99% of cases you can achieve the best offer out of this market. If you decide to sell your property, get the most active agents ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 28 by Chris Gilmour

    At the Allan Gray investment conference in late August last year, American economist Todd Bucholz laid out some clear guidelines that investors should observe when attempting to discern the likely direction of global equity markets. Bucholz reckoned that as long as inflation remained relatively low ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted January 23 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The observation I can make about the last week in general is that it feels like the volatility and volume are coming back. It seems that conditions in our market are improving. it helps of course that last week we saw a growing positive sentiment towards South Africa in general. The Cyril Ramaphosa ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 21 by Chris Gilmour

    The positive momentum of recent weeks on the global economy front continued last week with the release of China’s Q4 2017 and full year (FY) 2017 figures. At 6.9%, 2017 FY growth was well ahead of government estimates. It is also the first time since 2010 that the Chinese economy has expanded ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted January 14 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, what a week it has been! I guess that if this is the pace that has been set for the year we are in for a very excititng year. Overall, the late December and early January period was probably not too far from the normal Christmas / New Years routine. Marets where thin and bullish. The Santa ra...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 14 by Chris Gilmour

    From a global economic perspective, both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM) are moving nicely into 2018, in the first sustained period of synchronized growth since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. And while inflation has remained stubbornly low in the past few years, it seems...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 7 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets, as anticipated, began the year on a positive note. This is sometimes referred to as “The January Effect”, as the start of the year often reflects optimism. 2018 is likely to be no exception, as President Trump’s tax reforms begin to kick in and in the process...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 30, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets ended 2017 at record levels, with the MSCI World Index up 22% to finish at 514.53. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) finished up 26% higher and London’s FTSE 100 rose by 7.6% to a new high. Perhaps a just a note of realism should be injected here-the FTSE 100 is sti...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 23, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The Week Ahead 23 Dec 2017   As 2017 draws to a close, economic and financial activity slows down. Politically, there is still a lot going on, and many of the issues that were in the headlines at the beginning of the year are still haunting politicians and economists alike. Brexit negotiatio...

  • Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually

    Posted December 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually The news late on Mon 18 Dec that Cyril Ramaphosa had won the election for the13th Presidency of the ANC was met with a huge amount of relief by people in the business community. The rand strengthened significantly and shares dependent on South Africa Incorpor...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 17, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week the US Fed increased short term interest rates by 25 basis points and the likelihood is that there will be a further three rates hikes of the same magnitude in 2018, two in 2019 and two in 2020. The Bank of England left rates unchanged, as did the European Central Bank (ECB). While the ECB...

  • US Interest Rate Hike

    Posted December 14, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Federal Reserve (The Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as was widely anticipated.It also signalled three 25bp rises next year, two in 2019 and two in 2020. Outgoing Fed chairman Janet Yellen is happy that synchronised global growth will continue over the forecast period and that...

  • October Retail Sales

    Posted December 13, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    SA Retail Sales figures from Stats SA were published today at 13:00. While still in positive territory in real terms, a noticeable slowdown is apparent compared with the previous two months. Year on year growth of 3.2% in Oct compared with restated 5.7% in Sep and 5.4% in Aug. General dealers and re...

  • Markets last week - the Steinhoff show

    Posted December 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Wow! One of the only things I think I can really say. Last week was probably one of the most insane weeks I have ever seen in my life. First and foremost, the Steinhoff move. Never have I ever seen a company as big as Steinhoff fall so hard in such a short period of time. Allogations of balance she...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 10, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was dominated by the spectacular collapse of Steinhoff, which will probably go down in JSE history as its largest corporate scandal. We are far from having all the relevant facts to hand regarding what resulted in CEO Markus Jooste’s sudden resignation but what little we do have sugg...

  • Markets last week

    Posted December 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The breakneck pace at which things changed accelerated last week with the Rand continueing its charge during the course of last week. We saw relentless pressure on tech stocks the world over and at home in Naspers, which dragged the overall index down. This was spurred on by resources stocks coming ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 3, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On Sat 2 Dec, Republicans in the US Senate managed a narrow victory regarding President Trump’s tax reforms, ending the debate with a 51-49 win. This gives the president enough time to sign the tax reform bill into law before year end. All other things being equal, this should lend some stimul...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 27, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, where to start? The biggest news is of course that ratings agencies delivered their outlook on South Africa on Friday night. I think maybe we should spend some time trying to understand what had happened. First of all, the market reaction from the Rand was outside of what I had expected would...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 26, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    All eyes were on the release of Moody’s and S&P’s ratings decisions on Fri Nov 24. We had to wait until after the close of markets in New York, thanks to an EU directive on ratings agency releases. There were mixed blessings; S&P downgraded SA’s foreign currency denominated debt by...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was full of exciting events! The most notable for me was Naspers. Tencent had reported quarterly results, which were ahead of expectations, as well as Naspers putting out a trading statement on earnings and a trading statement saying that they will be listing some ADR's in London (this is ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was a tumultuous one in southern African politics, as Robert Mugabe’s ruinous 37 year-old reign was brought to an end by the Zimbabwean military. This unexpected turn of events could have far-reaching effects in and beyond Zimbabwe. And although Mugabe delivered a defiant address on ...

  • The return of market volume

    Posted November 16, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So I don't want to get too optimistic too quickly, but Ihave noticed that the volumes trading though the market has picked up a little in recent weeks. The JSE is by no means trading the volumes it was a year ago, but we are up from trading 1/3rd of the volume to trading 2/3rds of the volume. So it ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 12, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Global economic growth keeps on rising, with some analysts now forecasting a peak of around 4% in 2018 and that momentum being sustained into 2019, albeit a slightly lower rate. US economic growth acceleration is predicated upon tax reforms being successfully pushed through congress. European econom...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 7, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    My apologies for updating this so late. Nonetheless, herewith the summary of what I believe had a major influence in moving markets last week in terms of macro events and happenings from around the world.  On Monday we saw SA Private sector credit growing by 5.59% vs 5.19% expectatio...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted October 29, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    US GDP growth of 3% in the third quarter of this year surprised most economists, with the consensus being around 2.6%. Looks like the US economy recovered faster than expected from the effects of the hurricanes in Aug and Sep. This stronger than expected growth makes the prospect of an interest ra...

  • Seemingly unstoppable train

    Posted October 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    In preparation for the upcoming week, it helps to unpack some of the events that took place last week in order to aid with building road maps for what to expect in the week to come. Hence the weekly recap of what happened last week. So when looking at last week, there are a few themes that stood o...

  • What moved the market last week

    Posted October 22, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Although there are certainly many things that I miss each week, there are always a few things that stand out when I think back. The first of these for the week just past was continued robust performance from commodities and commodity stocks. This I believe was a spill over of the better than expecte...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted October 22, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago said last week he believed that none of the three main credit rating agencies would downgrade South Africa’s sovereign ratings at their reviews in late November. The governor and finance minister Malusi Gigaba met representatives of the ratings agencies on the ...

  • South African Retail Sales August

    Posted October 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Stats SA released the retail sales figures for August on Tue 17 Oct. These and the previous few months' figures are confusing , to say the least. On a month on month basis, they increased by 2.4% and on a year on year basis, they were up 5.5%. Remember, these are real figures, after deducting inflat...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted October 15, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    South African August  Manufacturing figures came in slightly better than expected last week. But mining production in August came in far higher than most economists were predicting, at 6.9% year on year seasonally adjusted. Much improved iron ore and platinum group metals output were the main r...

  • FTSE 100 hits record high

    Posted October 12, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The UK's FTSE 100 index hit a new record high of 7 556 on Thu 12 Oct as UK/EU Brexit talks appeared deadlocked. This in turn led to a weaker GBP which in turn led to the FTSE going higher, as the FTSE's composition is very heavily weighted to foreign companies with USD-denominated earnings. This ...

  • Don't cross the Bitcoin prophets

    Posted October 9, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Money functions as a measure of price, a medium of exchange and a store of value. Money evolves all the time. From sea shells to electronic cards money has taken many forms. To measure; store and act as medium of exchange there is a huge amount of trust required. Trust is the main criteria for so...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted October 8, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Synchronised global economic recovery continues in both the developed and developing worlds. Even the bad miss by economists on Friday in terms of forecasting the US nonfarm payrolls number in September hasn’t dented sentiment. Consensus view was for a gain of 90 000 jobs in September but the ...

  • Unwitting holder of Novus shares

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    When I opened my most recent share trading statement I was surprised to find that I am a proud shareholder of Novus Holding shares. I called up my bank to report possible fraud on my account and was informed that all Naspers shareholders gained a proportion of Novus shares due to an unbund...

  • Up, up and away!

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So uuhm, I don't mean to brag, but in the blog I wrote in February, I'd reasoned that it is raltively safe for us to stay bullish and get long resources... well, well, well... what do you know?   A lot has changed though. The most recent things that I think are potential drivers of the market...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester (2)

    Posted October 4, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On the occasion of what should have been the most important speech of her political life, Theresa May’s address to the Conservative Party Conference at Manchester was a farce-a complete and unmitigated disaster. To be fair, it was not May’s fault, as the content of her speech (for those ...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester

    Posted October 1, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Following on from the successful Liberal Democrat annual conference in Bournemouth and the equally successful Labour Party conference in  Brighton last month, beleaguered Conservative Party leader Theresa May kicks off her party’s conference in working-class Manchester on October 1, her 6...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted October 1, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    August’s trade surplus of R5.9bn last Friday 29 September confounded the sceptics, with consensus being at +3.2bn. July’s original figure of R8.9bn was also revised slightly higher to R9.3bn. Although notoriously volatile, the trade data does suggest that the weaker rand is having at lea...

  • Merkel's authority weakened after elections

    Posted September 25, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Politics dominated the weekend, with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) getting the largest share of the vote in the German general election but falling far short of an overall majority with around 33% of the popular vote. Martin Schulz of the second placed SPD (on 20.7%) has ruled...

  • How Section 12J VCC mitigate risk when investing

    Posted September 22, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    To protect South African investors Section 12J Venture Capital Companies, (VCC's) are highly regulated and require licenses from both the South African Revenue Service and Financial Services Board. When assessing section 12J funds to invest in, conducting a high level due diligence on the VCC is ...

  • Maintaining the status quo

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The MPC was split 3:3 in its decision to maintain the repo rate at 6.75%. This is not surprising, given the wide variety of factors affecting the decision, as set out in my previous article. Most economists are confidently predicting that the MPC will cut tates by 25 basis points at its November mee...

  • Big day ahead

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It is not often that we see such a convergence of big events. Last night we saw the FED (US Central Bank) keep interest rates unchanged, although move toward balance sheet reduction. What this means in lamens terms is that the FED will start selling off the bonds that they bought during their massiv...

  • Will they, won't they?

    Posted September 20, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The SARB's Monetary Policy Committee has been deliberating on interest rates today and will continue tomorrow until around 15:00, when SARB governor Kganyago will deliver the MPC's decision. In the wake of the lower than anticipated CPI print of 4.8% that came out today, perhaps the MPC will, afte...

  • Discovery Results Presentation

    Posted September 18, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Discovery CEO Adrian Gore gave another virtuoso performance to members of the Investment Analyst Society at the Wanderers Club yesterday. Some years ago I was let into a little secret about how seriously Adrian takes these presentations. My source, a former director of Discovery, informed me that ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted September 17, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

      The main local economic indicators being released this week are August’s CPI on Wed 20 Sep and the MPC decision on the repo rate on Thu 21 Sep at around 15:15. The consensus view on CPI is for a slight upwards movement to 4.9% from 4.6% in Jul. The consensus view on the repo rate is ...

  • Take advantage of Section 12J tax relief

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Take advantage of 12J tax relief while investing in disruptive technology. Investing in a Section 12J company gives investors access to sectors that are limited or non-existent in the listed space on the JSE. The appeal of investing in a Venture Capital Company (VCC) is not limited to the tax bre...

  • What companies a Section 12J VCC can invest in

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE |Connect

      When looking at the investment rules of Section 12J, Venture Capital Companies follow a strict and clearly defined set of regulations, as well as follow their own mandates for selection of investments. For example, a Section 12J Venture Capital Company's overriding strategy is to provide g...

  • What is Section 12J?

    Posted September 7, 2017 by INCE |Connect

      What is a Section 12J Venture Capital Company and how does it benefit tax payers? One of the main challenges to the economic growth of small and medium-sized businesses and junior mining exploration is access to equity finance. To assist these sectors in terms of equity finance, in 2009 t...

  • Times like these....

    Posted August 30, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Lunch time on a random Tuesday in August (the 29th to be exact). R5.6bln rand has exhanged hands on the JSE so far today. It sounds like a lot, although in truth is that it is very little when compared to historic volumes. Usually the JSE does around R25bln a day (sometimes as high as R32bln), altho...

  • Why you can’t afford not to have a tax-free savings account

    Posted August 18, 2017 by Igor Rodionov

    National Savings month has passed, and August brings us half way through the tax year. We thought this is a great opportunity to write about Tax-Free Savings to remind you to use your annual contribution limits. Most South Africans use money market or fixed deposit accounts for their saving needs...

  • End of 159 Year Old Stuttafords

    Posted August 2, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    The tragedy of business failure. After 159 years (since 1858) luxury department store in SA, Stuttafords, closed down for good today. A sorry tale of bad blood between shareholders (Ellerines and Rubensteins) who couldn't agree on how to address the crisis of the weakening ZAR, sluggish SA economy ...

  • Things are tough out there

    Posted July 18, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    I would love to say that it has been a wild couple of weeks. I mean, there have been some moves from stocks if you consider the shear size of the moves that have been taking place in the markets. However, I can't say that it has been a good couple of weeks simply because I am starting to get really ...

  • Frustrating times

    Posted May 31, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The last few weeks, or month and a bit, have been incredibly frustrating in the markets. There is very little volume/liquidity on the JSE, so it's been the stuff of nightmares for traders. I'm not really sure why there is such little volume being traded, but from what I have been hearing, it is the ...

  • So much noise... it's all about France

    Posted April 28, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Long weekends abound... one would think that the market takes it easy in April as most people tend too. But no, the market has been pretty busy. I think though, what I am starting to learn, is that the market is pretty much always busy.   I often think that 'once this xyz event passes, things...

  • Crazy times

    Posted March 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Geez what a day!    This market of ours is being thrown around from pillar to post thanks to all the politcal shenanigans that are going on. Some massive moves in the Rand, which leads to massive moves in the underlying market. Frankly it's been a little scary. To think that one man and ...

  • Interest rate divergence bodes bullish

    Posted March 23, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, it's been a busy time for me over the last few weeks. I've been meaning to air out some ideas around interest rates and have not yet really had the time to sit down and do it until now. Sign of the times I suppose. Even though the volumes trading through the market are not all that high, there...

  • The world is partying without us

    Posted March 1, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It seems that almost the entire world is throwing a big party and we are not invited. The US markets are trading at all time highs. In fact, it set yet another record today. The FTSE recently broke a 10 year, yes, 10 year resistance level and has traded up into record high territory. The German ma...

  • What is EasyEquities?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by INCE |Connect

    Hi and welcome, thank you for stopping by and reading this post.    In this blog post we will be telling you more about EasyEquities and how easy it is to invest in your favourite companies and brands. But before we begin and for those that are not yet investing or perhaps just star...

  • Is it safe to stay bullish?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    US Markets, for the most part, are at all time record highs and are currently in the second longest bull market in history. This is making a great deal of people very bearish, as I suppose, one can understand. The question that I am faced with at the moment though is; do I stay long, or do I move th...

  • African Phoenix

    Posted February 2, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

      So African Phoenix is here and had a rather unspectacular first day of trading. When the stock was still known as ABIL, it closed at 31c and after trading on the 1st of Feb for the first time in a long while, it closed the day at 52c after having traded slightly over 73 million shares for ...

  • What to do ahead of Trump's inauguration

    Posted January 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So Trump day is finally here. Later today Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States. I've heard pretty much every conspiracy theory possible so far about what is going to, or could happen today. I'm not sure that I am in the same camp as so many who expect total chaos to unfold...

  • Is chicken in trouble?

    Posted January 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So... Astral Foods just released a statement basically saying that if Eskom cuts off their power due to the manucipality not paying it's electric bill, it would spell disaster for the company. This, linked with stories about potential strike action in the sector due to the importing of chicken from ...

  • Rules for investing in the stock market

    Posted December 19, 2016 by INCE |Connect

    While it may be true that in the stock market arena there is no rule without an exception, here are some principles that may be tough to dispute. Let's quickly go through a few general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view.   1. Tr...