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    Posted Jan 17 by Janet Crawford

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    Posted July 14, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

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    Posted July 7, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

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    Posted June 30, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Global growth slowing but no recession in sight. The S&P 500 closed at 2 942, rising marginally on the week but in the process, recording its best Jun performance in 64 years. The main reason for such an improvement was the perception that the US Fed’s FOMC will cut rates by 75 basis points d...

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    Ince The Week Ahead 23 Jun 2019 Geopolitical tensions in the middle east escalated significantly last week with the shooting down of an unmanned US drone by Iran. US President Donald Trump’s initial response was to consider bombing Iran in retaliation but he backed off and subsequently decide...

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    Posted June 16, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The Fed will likely keep rates steady next week, but listen to the narrative very carefully Crude oil prices spiked briefly on Thu 13 Jun on news that two oil tankers had been attacked in the Straits of Hormuz. But the rally didn’t last long, as news emerged from a variety of sources, notably...

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    Posted June 9, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate, as the ongoing Sino-American trade disputes escalate. Although apparently not having a large impact on the US yet, tariffs are definitely impacting on Chinese growth. Those who believe that President Tr...

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    Posted June 2, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Trump’s actions on trade continue to dampen the outlook for US equities US equity markets were dealt a fresh blow last Fri with the Trump administration’s threat to apply tariffs on Mexican goods if that country’s government doesn’t work harder to tighten illegal immigration...

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    Posted May 26, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    More chaos in UK politics should keep the GBP volatile Embattled UK prime minister Theresa May announced her resignation on Fri 24 May. The frontrunner to replace her is former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, though it should be pointed out that frontrunners for the Conservative Party leadership r...

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    Posted May 19, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Who’ll blink first-the US or China? The US/China trade situation dominated world markets last week, with neither side showing any sign of willing to compromise. It is becoming clear that the US sees the matter more from a national security perspective than an economic one and is thus prepared...

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    Posted May 11, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water….. Last weekend, the global growth outlook was looking relatively benign and the S&P 500 was hitting new peaks. Then out of the blue, the Trump administration came out with the prospect of fresh trade tariffs aimed at China and market...

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    Posted May 5, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    US unemployment hits a generational low point By virtually any gauge, the US economy is showing good sustained growth. US nonfarm payrolls for Apr which came out last Fri 3 May easily beat the expected 187k consensus, coming in at 263k. Unemployment is now at a generational low point of 3.6%-the la...

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    Posted April 28, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The S&P 500 hits a new record close The S&P 500 closed at 2 939.88, its highest-ever close and a whisker away from its record intra-day high set in Sep 2018. Much better-than-expected US GDP growth figures helped push the index higher, as did slightly better corporate earnings figures. Additionally...

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    Posted April 22, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    US equity markets need a push from corporate earnings to move substantially higher The week kicked off with Brent crude oil hitting a recent high of just under $75/bbl on news that the White House has ended sanctions waivers on countries that buy oil from Iran. If implemented fully, this may well r...

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    Posted April 14, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Global growth continues to slow Two global organisations-the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO)-released gloomy forecasts for global economic growth last week.  The WTO’s latest global trade statistics and outlook painted a really downbeat picture of...

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    Posted April 7, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The S&P 500 may make a new high this quarter While an inverted US yield curve is normally associated with the beginnings of recession, this may not necessarily be the case this time around. The global financial system remains fragile and central banks are only too aware of this. They will step up t...

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    Posted March 31, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    South Africa dodges a bullet from Moody’s The very strong bounce in the S&P 500 during the first quarter of 2019 has resulted in the strongest Mar quarter since 1998. After flirting with a bear market in late 2018, the S&P 500 is now only 3.3% below its all time high of 2931 in Sep 2018. Opin...

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    Posted March 24, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    An inverted yield curve in the US suggests a recession may not be too far off. At the FOMC meeting last week, chairman Jay Powell struck a much more dovish tone on interest rates and the likelihood now is that there will be no further interest rate rises in the US this year. Powell made reference t...

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    Posted March 17, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    British PM Theresa May running down the clock ahead of planned EU withdrawal on Mar 29 The S&P 500 rose by 2.9% to close at a 2019 high of 2822.5. It is now 20% higher than at its low point on Christmas Eve 2018 and only 3.7% below its all time high of 2931 set on Sep 20 2018. Next week will be piv...

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    Posted March 10, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Uncertainty continues to cloud outlook for global equity markets The US nonfarm payrolls report for Feb shocked on the downside, with only 20 000 new jobs being created relative to a consensus expectation of 180 000. There were probably at least a couple of technical factors that could be behind th...

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    Posted March 3, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The S&P 500 breaches the psychologically-important 2 800 level. While the world experiences “global warming” as far as temperatures are concerned, the world economy is undoubtedly experiencing a period of “global cooling”, with virtually all economic data now showing a slowd...

  • The Week Ahead of 25 February 2019

    Posted February 24, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Trade wars perhaps subsiding. The slump in global trade continues, as evidenced by the recent drop in Japanese exports to China. Precisely how much of this is due to a slowing Chinese economy and how much to the ongoing US-Sino trade wars is difficult to calculate but there can be little doubt that...

  • The Week Ahead of 19 February 2019

    Posted February 17, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Is the S&P 500 reaching resistance? The global economic gloom lifted somewhat last week, with US-China trade tensions appearing to subside slightly and the likelihood of another US government shutdown receding. However, it is still too early to say that global economic growth is back on a sustained...

  • The Week Ahead of 12 February 2019

    Posted February 10, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Can Cyril Ramaphosa execute on his investor-friendly SONA? In his State of the Union address to congress last week, US President Donald Trump referred to the US as having “far and away the hottest economy anywhere in the world”. Even allowing for Trump’s fondness for hyperbole, he...

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    Posted February 4, 2019 by Petri Redelinghuys

    What a wild start to the year it has been!  The two things that stand out the most to me so far are; the ferocious relief rally that we have seen in most global markets and, the very poor retail sales numbers that were reported by SA retailers. On the international front Over the last...

  • The Week Ahead of 5 February 2019

    Posted February 3, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The US economy remains strong. US nonfarm payrolls rose by a whopping 304k jobs in Jan, way above consensus forecasts of around 165k. However, it should be noted that Dec 2018’s figures were revised down markedly, from 312k to 222k. Nevertheless, it is still a very strong showing, especially ...

  • The Week Ahead of 29 June 2019

    Posted January 27, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Is America going back to work on a sustained basis? Chinese economic growth for 2018 came in at 6.6%, which was very much at the lower end of expectations and the lowest growth rate since 1990. Leaving aside natural suspicions regarding the veracity of these figures, the trend is undoubtedly down...

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    Posted January 20, 2019 by Petri Redelinghuys

    And as fast as the S&P500 came tumbling down, it rallied back up... well, almost as fast. From the Worst December is many decades for the US market to the best start of a year since 1987 (so far... January is not yet over). It's been a bit of a face ripping rally over the last few weeks and many a...

  • The Week Ahead of 22 January 2019

    Posted January 20, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Is the S&P 500’s current strength signaling a bull trap? Global economic growth is still cooling, notably in China, where both imports and exports contracted in December. A Chinese growth rate above 6% for 2018 now seems optimistic. The US government shutdown is now by far the longest in Amer...

  • The Week Ahead of 15 January 2019

    Posted January 13, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    Can the S&P 500’s winning streak continue? The global economy continues to weaken, with the US also now showing signs of slowing growth. There is a growing perception that the US Fed may only raise rate twice this year and even that view is highly data-dependent. In other words, if the US eco...

  • The Week Ahead of 8 January 2019

    Posted January 6, 2019 by Chris Gilmour

    The year of living dangerously? The start to 2018 was highlighted by the expression “synchronized global growth”. As the year progressed, however, and it became clear that the US and China were indeed facing off against each other in a trade war, that term rapidly became not only redund...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 30, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Hopefully, 2019 will be a better year for global equity markets than 2018 The S&P 500 index is the US, the most useful indicator of large capitalization US stocks, experienced a roller-coaster ride in 2018. Starting the year at 2 696, it hit an all-time high of 2 930 on 21 Sep and then plunged to 2...

  • And now we do nothing...

    Posted December 24, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, now what? The S&P500 has traded down to the short term target price I had for it and I am now not sure at all about what to do from here. The overall view that I have for the US and global markets still remains unchanged in that I expect that global economic conditions will deteriorate next...

  • Bearish price action is telling us a story

    Posted December 15, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    I've never seen a bear market, so perhaps my view here is not of much value. My trading and investing career started in 2009. At the time, I had no idea that we had been in a crash scenario or that all I had to do was buy blue chip companies and wait a decade. At that time a decade felt like it wo...

  • The Week Ahead of 10 December 2018

    Posted December 8, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Many factors conspiring to inject uncertainty into global equity markets The S&P 500 exhibited a technical signal called the “Death Cross” on Friday, suggesting that this market could stay lower for longer than has been anticipated. The index closed 2.3% lower at 2 633 on Fri 7 Dec and ...

  • SA out of recession

    Posted December 5, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, I have to admit that I am surprised that the GDP number came in to strong yesterday. GDP growth came in at 2.2% versus expectations of 1.1%, which means that South Africa is now out of the technical recession. This is good news as we have now escaped two recessions in two years. It does show t...

  • US Tech & Brent Crude - Buy or Sell?

    Posted December 2, 2018 by Thys Bekker

    What predictions for this week after G20?

  • The Week Ahead of 3 December 2018

    Posted December 2, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Equity markets may get relief from trade war suspension. As widely anticipated, the US and China agreed to a suspension of escalation of the current trade war that exists between these two countries. The suspension will last for 90 days, during which time both sides have agreed to intensify negotia...

  • The Week Ahead of 27 November 2018

    Posted November 25, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US equity markets paused on Thanksgiving. The pause that refreshes? US stocks closed lower after a half-day trading session on Thanksgiving Friday, moving the S&P 500 index into a correction, defined as a drop of 10% below its most recent peak in Sep. Energy companies led the decline as the crude o...

  • Calling a top? Crazy, or right? Time will tell.

    Posted November 20, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    I've been meaning to write this post for a while now, although I have been a little scared too. I remember when I first started blogging on WordPress back in 2012 I think.? At the time, I was convinced by the double dip recession narrative and wrote a blog post about it. I think it got just over 100...

  • FinChatBot secures $500k investment from Compass & Kalon VP

    Posted November 19, 2018 by Michelle Blumenau

    South African venture capital firm Kalon Venture Partners and Mauritius-based Compass Venture Capital are pleased to announce their co-investment into one of the leading financial services chatbot providers, FinChatBot. The investment amount is $500 000 (over R7 million). FinChatBot develops c...

  • The Week Ahead of 13 November 2018

    Posted November 10, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Trump’s wings clipped-to an extent. As anticipated in last week’s note, the US midterm elections delivered a split Congress, with the Republicans losing control to the Democrats in the House of Representatives, though surprisingly the Republicans managed to increase their representation...

  • The Week Ahead of 6 November 2018

    Posted November 4, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Markets snap back The US mid-term elections could have far-reaching ramifications for President Trump’s actions over the next two years and could also have an impact on the US equity markets. Currently, the Republicans control the Executive (the Presidency), the Senate and the House of Repres...

  • Turning points are hard to call

    Posted October 30, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, turning points are not that hard to call... when you are looking back. Retrospect is the most amazing analytical tool. Sadly, it's not a real tool and it is completely useless to us. We live life going forward, as we experience markets one moment at a time. Turning points are important though...

  • The Week Ahead of November 2018

    Posted October 28, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The S&P 500 is flirting with a correction. The S&P 500 Index in the US is now slightly below the level at which it began the year. In other words, all the gains thus far in 2018 have been wiped out. More worryingly, the fall from the 2 931 peak on Sep 20 to the current level of 2 659 represents a p...

  • Fintech launches fun savings app for SA millennials

    Posted October 24, 2018 by Michelle Blumenau

    Akiba Digital developing an AI-powered financial literacy platform aimed at millennials, building trust and security for personal finance. Financial literacy remains a barrier for the youth. There is currently no platform that offers financial insights and proactively empowers or educates millenni...

  • The Week Ahead of 23 October 2018

    Posted October 21, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Caution remains the watchword on global equity markets Despite President Donald Trump referring to US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as his “biggest threat” last week, Powell ands his FOMC are unlikely to be diverted from their path of hiking interest rates. While rates are like...

  • Stand back and think it out before acting

    Posted October 19, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Markets are tremendously tricky things. I have, a few times in my life, become very vocally bearish when markets traded the way that they are now in the past. I remember in January 2015 I think it was, when the Alsi fell around 10% - 15% in two weeks, that I got incredibly bearish and started callin...

  • PSG Interim Results

    Posted October 15, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Against an especially difficult background, PSG Konsult presented a very strong set of results for the six months to end August 2018. Recurring headline earnings per share (HEPS) rose a very strong 18%, while the dividend was raised by 23% from 5,7c last year to 7.0c now. While it is not known fro...

  • The Week Ahead of 16 October 2018

    Posted October 14, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US equity market takes a big hit but far from bear market territory.  Last week was a tumultuous one, not only on the local political front but also on the global equity front. After a torrid week in the headlines, Finance Minister NhlaNhla Nene did the honourable thing and tendered his resi...

  • Cannabis Shares - a growing market

    Posted October 11, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    The Cannabis share market is currently being driven by de-regulation. Both in North America and South Africa. In Canada medical use of Cannabis has been legal for a while now and recreational use of cannabis will be legal from 17th October. In the US medical use of cannabis is legal in 30 states ...

  • The Week Ahead of 9 October 2018

    Posted October 7, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Global growth is showing nascent signs of slowing and with the crude oil price now at levels not seen since Nov 2014 (over $80USD/bbl) , the outlook is deteriorating. Last month marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Global Financial Crisis, characterized by the collapse of Lehman Brother...

  • Another week another land mine

    Posted October 1, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Geepers man, I just wrote a short while ago about how the JSE has become a land mine filled, well, minefield, thinking that the worst is now behind us. Enter Choppies... delayed release of results, with a backdrop of a recession in SA, and boom! The share price dropped 75% in one day last week. ...

  • The Week Ahead of 2nd October 2018

    Posted September 29, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Increasing signs that a US equity market correction is overdue. The US Fed raised US short term interest rates by 25 basis points as expected last week and signaled that one more rate hike can be expected before year end. Expect another three rate hikes during the course of 2019. Although one can...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 25 September 2018

    Posted September 25, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    With plenty of sporting action on offer this week, the main talking point is undoubtedly the return to the winners' circle of golfing great, Tiger Woods, who claimed his first win in five years at the PGA's Tour Championship. There's plenty of sporting action to look out for in the week ahead, and h...

  • The Week Ahead of 25 September 2018

    Posted September 23, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Donald Trump playing a dangerous game with trade tariffs In the latest twist in the ongoing trade tariff escalation between the US and China, the US slapped a further $200bn worth of tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods. Expect further retaliation from Beijing soon. Trade talks between the two cou...

  • Attributes of a Good Academic Writer

    Posted September 23, 2018 by Wardlaw Flournoy

    Each student attempts to be a fair academic writer. There are a couple of necessities that and student should meet to qualify as a not too bad insightful writer. At first, you should be careful. This derives you should give cautious thought to each one of the requirements of a given paper. Review ...

  • Cape Town Property Investment Opportunity

    Posted September 22, 2018 by Megan Bernstein

      I have been appointed to help with sales and marketing of a new real estate development in Cape Town -  wanted to to share as it’s a fantastic  property Investment opportunity or first time home buyers. This affordable and limited purchase offer is set to deliver high return...

  • Third Quarter update Sept 2018

    Posted September 19, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    The performance figures below show the share price changes since publication of the articles. The table is arranged in order of highest gainers to lowest. The accumulated dividends amount to 1.25% of the portfolio value. The total gain is 7.54% including dividends I model the portfolio in Morn...

  • Landmines wherever you look

    Posted September 18, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    One has to start wondering when our market is going to step on the next landmine. Over the last few months we have witnessed Steinhoff practically melt away into nothingness, EOH's share price collapsed, as well as Resilient Real Estate Investment Trust, Consolidated Investment Group, MTN, and ...

  • The Week Ahead of 18 September 2018

    Posted September 16, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    South Africa will be lucky to escape the Emerging Market (EM) contagion currently caused by Turkey, Argentine and Venezuela. Last Thu, Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates by 6.25% to 24%. The Turkish lira has fallen some 40% since the beginning of the year and the central bank has now ...

  • Perfect storm

    Posted September 11, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    And just as things started looking better... the perfect set of circumstances rears up its head and crushes no only the SA market, but emerging markets in general. A couple of things "went wrong" last week that took a number of people, including me, by surprise.  To keep it all in perspective ...

  • The Week Ahead of 11 September 2018

    Posted September 9, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US equity markets weakened last week in the face of growing trade tensions between the US and China. September and October are traditionally very volatile periods for the US stock market and 2018 is likely to be no exception. The big news of last week locally was the release of Q2 GDP numbers in SA...

  • Justice in Motion

    Posted September 7, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    In early September, PSG hosted an outstanding series of presentations entitled “Justice in Motion” by well-known writer and broadcaster Justice Malala.  The essence of his presentation was a look back at what led up to the tumultuous events surrounding the election of Cyril Ramaphos...

  • The Trust Economy: Corporate Reporting's New Frontier

    Posted September 3, 2018 by Selabe Kute

    The scene was brimming with smiles and protruding chests, as the figurative confetti of integrating reporting grandeur showered down on Nedbank Group Ltd. The 2018 Excellence in Integrated Reporting Awards hosted by EY saw the banking group hoist the top award for its Integrated Report, beating ou...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 4 September 2018

    Posted September 3, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    In a gruelling week of sporting action that produced many upsets, there was some outstanding entertainment on offer with plenty to keep your eye on in the week to come. Rugby After taking a break this past weekend, the Rugby Championship will return to your screens on Saturday with Argentina trave...

  • Why Tencent's regulatory hurdles matter

    Posted September 2, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    We all know that Naspers owns about 1/3rd of Tencent and that Tencent is the biggest tech company in China. That is why when Tencent earnings come out, we all sit up and listen. What we might not have such a firm grasp on though, is the really the scale, or, the size of Tencent and its dominanc...

  • The Week Ahead of 4 September 2018

    Posted September 2, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Emerging Markets (EMs) remained under pressure last week and the ZAR fell again in line with EM weakness generally. We should remember that the EM economies currently taking strain typically all exhibit external weaknesses or fiscal imbalances, combined with a lack of foreign exchange reserves and ...

  • Climate change is a risk to your investments and retirement

    Posted August 31, 2018 by Greer Blizzard

    The risks that climate change poses to listed companies are ultimately financial risks to shareholders, especially those who are invested in pension funds. The growing incidence of such risks being realised is a very real threat to shareholder value, especially when it comes to long-term investing a...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 28 August 2018

    Posted August 27, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    There was plenty of sporting action on offer over the last week with some of the main events including the Rugby Championship and the Formula One held at Spa in Belgium. It was a weekend to forget for South African Rugby fans, nonetheless, there were many other memorable moments, some of which are d...

  • The Week Ahead of 28 August 2018

    Posted August 26, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    President Donald Trump stirred the pot on the land Expropriation Without Compensation (EWC) debate in South Africa, with an ill-conceived tweet based on inaccurate and misleading news reports from the Fox TV network in the US. There was an oblique suggestion that the US might impose sanctions on SA ...

  • Shoprite earings crush and bounce

    Posted August 23, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Earnings season is upon us locally and has been creating a few very interesting opportunities. The one that stands out the most to me is Shoprite. A number of things stood out to me in their results. Firstly, the consumer is under a ton of pressure. Shoprite is mostly a cash business and operates in...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 21 August 2018

    Posted August 20, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    In what was an exciting week of sporting action, there were some epic encounters over the last week that left sporting fanatics from across the globe breathless. A masterclass from Brandt Snedeker, some fancy footwork from Aphiwe Dyantyi and a dominant Novak Djokovic were just some of the dazzling d...

  • The Week Ahead of 21 August 2018

    Posted August 19, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The ZAR took a great deal of strain last week as emerging market (EM) contagion caught hold good and proper, catalyzed mainly by the decline in the Turkish lira. Most EM currencies were affected but the most acute declines were experienced by the ZAR, Russian rouble, Colombian peso and Argentine pes...

  • The Week Ahead of 14 August 2018

    Posted August 12, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The escalation of geopolitical rhetoric took a new turn this week with the US imposing sanctions on Russia as a result of the Novichok poisoning in Salisbury, England, earlier this year. The US also tightened sanctions on Iran and threatened Turkey with sanctions. The net effect from a South African...

  • Meredith: good dividend payer with significant growth potential

    Posted August 8, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    What does Meredith Corporation do? MDP is a diversified digital and print media company which also owns 17 radio stations in the US. Meredith is the leader in creating and distributing content across platforms in key consumer interest areas such as food, home, parenting and lifestyle through well...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 7 August 2018

    Posted August 6, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action involved some highs and lows for South African supporters, with the main event being the Lions who faced off against the Crusaders in the Super Rugby Final. The Proteas were again in action over the weekend in the 3rd ODI against Sri Lanka and the sporting week was c...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted August 5, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Federal Open Market Committee changed its narrative last week to reflect what it sees as a stronger US economy. There will likely be two more rate hikes in the US during the remainder of this year and another four in 2019. Against that type of background, the US economy will need to grow espe...

  • Iron Mountain Incorporated an income share with potential

    Posted August 2, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) is a document and data storage company with a colourful history. The company officially converted to a REIT in 2014. IRM initially started out as a document storage company it has since expanded to become one of the largest data storage centres in the world. To qu...

  • More tricky days ahead

    Posted August 1, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week our market traded very low volume, which I suppose is something that we are getting used too. I suppose it's also no surprise that our market is still range bound and largely directionless either. There has been some excitement though, most of it this week I'll admit. Yesterday aft...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted July 30, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The 10th BRICs summit took place in Johannesburg last week with a very pleasant precursor in the form of a promise by China to invest $15bn in SA. Details are sketchy but this comes hard on the heels of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s recent trip to the middle east, where similar-sized promises we...

  • Sport in an INCEtant - 25 July 2018

    Posted July 23, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action from across the globe provided fans with plenty of high quality entertainment with some gruelling matchups between the biggest names of the sporting World. Rugby The highly anticipated Super Rugby playoffs commenced on Friday morning with South African Rugby love...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted July 22, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US economic data remains robust, even though American households are already having to pay more for imported consumer electronic goods originating in China, thanks to trade tariffs. Markets are still shrugging off concerns about trade wars, even though a growing body of observers, both US and elsewh...

  • Wading through the waters

    Posted July 19, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Financial markets are fickle things... the last few weeks have been, for our local market, really difficult. It may not be reflected as much in the level at which out Top 40 Index is trading, seeing as it is ranging sideways and not really making or losing much ground (and has been doing this for ab...

  • The business logic for sustainability

    Posted July 18, 2018 by Selabe Kute

    We get the Business case, but let's talk about the Business Logic for Sustainability.   If anyone were to ask the late American economist Milton Friedman what the purpose of business is, he would probably lean back on his nappa leather arm chair and retort, in a throaty Brooklyn accent, "to...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted July 15, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Geopolitical tensions remain high as we head further into the northern hemisphere summer. Trade remains top of mind among economists and the concern is that full scale trade wars may not now be far away. While global equity markets have tended to shrug off these concerns, seeing them as merely negot...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted July 8, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Global financial markets face a delicious dilemma: while trade tensions dominate and are beginning to assume alarming proportions, economic data points to a booming US economy, including a superficially healthy labour market. A full-on global trade war would probably result in stagflation for the gl...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted July 1, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The JSE and other emerging markets fell sharply on Mon Jun 25 amid mounting concerns surround the scale of possible trade wars. Emerging market currencies fell sharply as well and the rand was especially hard hit due to its very high tradeability. The rand is often seen a proxy for em...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted June 24, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    During the second quarter of this year,  investors and speculators alike have endured unexpectedly soft economic conditions, apart from the US. There have been major disruptions in several emerging-market economies (such as Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina), political instability in southern Eur...

  • Sport in an INCEtanat! 22 June 2018

    Posted June 21, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week saw the commencement of the Soccer World Cup held in Russia, which has generated enough talking points over the course of the week for sporting fans around the World. That being said, there were plenty other memorable moments that unfolded during the week, and you can rest assured that the...

  • Stay Woke: Making Sense of Shareholder Activism

    Posted June 20, 2018 by Selabe Kute

    The irrepressible former French statesman and relic of all things revolutionary, Napoleon Bonaparte, once uttered, "power is my mistress. I have worked too hard at her conquest to allow anyone to take her away from me". His brazen meditation on the addictive and possessive relationship that those ...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted June 17, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The US FOMC increased rates by 25bp last week and the hawkish tone in the narrative suggests another two interest rate hikes this year. The ECB, meanwhile, is only looking to Sep 2019 for its first rate hike. President Trump finally met with Kim Jong-Un last week and appeared to have struck a deal ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 15 June 2018

    Posted June 14, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The Fifa World Cup is finally here with the whole World drawn to each and every game of this sporting phenomenon. While the World Cup may dominate headlines over the next month, there is still plenty other action around the World to captivate the hearts and souls of sporting fans across the globe. ...

  • A look back at Share Picks USA recent performance

    Posted June 13, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    Recently I have been struggling to find value in Dividend Growth Stocks for the growth portfolio. So instead of writing about a specific share I decided to take a backward look at how the shares are performing since publication on Share Picks USA. I also briefly discuss the difference between Divid...

  • The Week ahead

    Posted June 10, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    First quarter GDP figures in SA were much worse than expected-in fact more than four times worse than expected, with the consensus view being for a contraction of 0.5% and the actual coming in at -2.2%. Agriculture was the main culprit, coming off a very high base in 2017. With the impact of that ba...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 8 June 2018

    Posted June 7, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    There are many exciting sporting match-ups to look forward to over the next week as well as some moments to reflect on from the week past. The sporting World is now eagerly awaiting the kick-off of the 2018 Fifa World Cup, which gets underway in just six days. Below is a quick recap of last week&rsq...

  • The semantics of stakeholder communications

    Posted June 4, 2018 by Selabe Kute

    A consortium of Maserati-wielding property developers is funding the construction of a new multi-storey shopping complex in a working-class suburb of central Johannesburg. Large retail chains are salivating at the prospect of opening their swanky boutiques and artisanal coffee shops while property-p...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 27, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    After US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled his planned meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un in Singapore on Jun 12, Kim and his South Korean counterpart President Moon Jae-in hastily convened a meeting on Sat 26 Jun, after which it was announced that a Trump/Kim meeting might still ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 25 May 2018

    Posted May 24, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The last seven days on the sporting field provided viewers around the World with action packed drama as many seasons are now drawing to a conclusion. There are some exciting prospects to look forward to in the next month, and below is my take on what’s happened in the last week,...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 20, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The trade talks between the US and China ended on Sat 19 May. Initial reactions were mildly positive but not enough detail was available to make definite conclusions. It is clear, however, that both sides want to avoid a trade war and that all efforts are being made in this direction. The Chinese ha...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 18 May 2018

    Posted May 17, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week’s sporting action produced some major upsets but nonetheless, offered a great spectacle for fans! Rugby, golf, soccer and tennis all produced some very interesting results which I’ll go through with you, as well as highlighting some of the best entertainment on offer in the wee...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 13, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US President Donald Trump’s administration re-imposed sanctions on Iran, though this action ahead of the May 12 deadline was widely anticipated. Most European countries are unlikely to follow suit and theoretically they could be in the US “firing line” for such non-compliance with ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 11 May 2018

    Posted May 10, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    Over the past week, sporting fanatics around the globe were treated to entertainment of the highest quality. For some, the last week provided many reasons to celebrate, while others would have been left feeling empty with many vital match-ups having taken place across many sporting events. Rugby ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted May 6, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The oil price hovered around $75/bbl towards the end of last week ahead of the May 12 deadline for the US and other countries to reimpose sanctions on Iran. This appears to be the main factor affecting the oil price though there are many other contributing factors that cannot be ignored. One of the...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 4 May 2018

    Posted May 3, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The sporting World was set alight last week with many moments of sheer brilliance. Here is my recap of some of the highlights of the last seven days of action, coupled with a few events to keep your eye on! Rugby With the Springbok series against England in June now just around the corner, many ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted April 29, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Global geopolitical tensions cooled markedly last week with the historic meeting of the leaders of North and South Korea in Seoul, the first such meeting in the 65 years since the end of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. While it is too early to become overly-enthusiastic about the potential outc...

  • Sport in an INCEtant 27 April 2018

    Posted April 26, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    Last week was full of action packed drama which featured massive blows in the IPL, breath-taking goals in the Champions League and draw dropping brilliance on the rugby field. Here’s what this week’s major talking points were, and a few events to look out for in the week to come. Rugby ...

  • Snap-on; an undervalued dividend paying share with good upside

    Posted April 26, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    Snap-on was founded in 1920 and is a $3.7 billion revenue company with a $8.7B Market Cap. It has been paying dividends since 1939. The dividends have increased for the last 9 years. About Snap-on: Snap-on Incorporated is a leading global innovator, manufacturer and marketer of tools, equipment, d...

  • 2018 in context

    Posted April 22, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    2018 has seen the return of volatility. Over the last few years, markets and market participants have become somewhat complacent in the comfort of a low volatility upward driving market environment. Focusing on the US market in particular, the S&P500 hadn't had a move, up or down, in excess of 1% fo...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted April 22, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    At its annual spring meeting in Washington last week, the IMF affirmed its positive sentiment toward strong and sustained synchronized global economic growth. Notwithstanding this optimism, a growing body of observers is starting to question whether or not this can indeed be sustained.  An exce...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 20 April 2018

    Posted April 19, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The last seven days in the sporting World proved to be highly significant for some, as trophies were lifted and medals awarded, while others had to seek comfort in the all-too-familiar phrase, “next time, it’s ours”. Here is my summary of the highs and lows of last week’s spo...

  • US earnings season should give some direction

    Posted April 18, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    For the last few weeks markets have been somewhat sideways and directionless. Over and above, volumes traded in SA have been really low. I think that this is due to two main factors. First, Ramaphosa euphoria is starting to wane a little as the focus is now shifting to actual policy implimentation ...

  • AT&T an undervalued high yield share for the income investor

    Posted April 18, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    AT&T is the worlds largest telecoms company. The company has been in existence since 1875. The company provides fixed and mobile telephone services, data and internet services as well as pay-TV. The company operates distinct business units: The following is an extract from their website AT&T Comm...

  • A bucket list tickoff - St Kilda

    Posted April 17, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    St Kilda is an uninhabited volcanic archipelago in the north Atlantic, about 50 miles west of the Western Isles off the Scottish coast. A dual World Heritage Site, it has recently been opened up to limited tourist access during the summer months and is well worth a visit. In 2005 St Kilda became one...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted April 15, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Geopolitical tensions erupted last week with the west bombing Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in Syria. Just prior to that, the US helped to significantly weaken the Russian rouble (RUB) by effectively applying sanctions on Russian company Rusal plc, a Eurobond-iss...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 13 April 2018

    Posted April 12, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    This week’s action had many highs and lows with people around the World waiting in anticipation across all sporting events. We heard tremendous roars from the crowd-laden fairways of Augusta, coupled with tears at the start line of the De Brabantse Pijl as the cycling World mourned the loss of...

  • Investing business plan

    Posted April 11, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    Summary Brief comment on the US market and why I am holding back on trading. The need for an Investing Business Plan is discussed   With the recent US market decline are shares now fairly valued? In my opinion the market is still overpriced. The S&P 500 has declined by 10% from its hi...

  • Whisky Galore in Scotland

    Posted April 10, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Recounting the title of an old black and white movie from the 1940s, I recently visited a collection of single malt distilleries in an around the Tarbat Peninsula in the far north-east of Scotland. The main towns here are Tain and Alness and the three best known brands are Glenmorangie, Dalmore and ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted April 8, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    From a trading perspective, last week’s “big news” was the S&P 500 breaking down below its 200-day moving average after having been above it for 442 days consecutively. Logically, this suggests weakness, but historical studies suggest otherwise. In other words, if all the instances...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! 5 April 2018

    Posted April 5, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    Another week's worth of sporting greatness has flown by, with some memorable moments that will be remembered by sport fanatics for many years to come! The World was treated to some momentous match-ups, which lived up to all expectations. This week's journey took us from delightful finesse at The Wan...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted April 1, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Although the prospect of an all-out trade war between the US and China abated somewhat last week, continued nervousness and thus heightened volatility is expected on this front for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, unless inflation and interest rates soar unexpectedly and a genuine trade war doe...

  • Before you go on holiday...

    Posted March 29, 2018 by Martin Grobler

    You have booked that trip, researched the must-see attractions, recharged all your electronic devices, packed your bags and now... it's the evening just before you leave on holiday; the day before you leave for that long-overdue vacation you've been dreaming of for months. Are you ready? Before you...

  • Interest rate outlook

    Posted March 28, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Later today we will be hearing form the South African Reserve Bank whether or not we will be getting some relief in the form of an interest rate cut. It’s a fairly fine line for them to walk, although my thinking is that they will likely cut the interest rate by 0.25% - 0.5%.   The way ...

  • Sport in an INCEtant! March 27 2018

    Posted March 28, 2018 by Steven Theunissen

    The last week of sporting action will largely be remembered for a highly controversial encounter between The Proteas and Australia which has undoubtedly left a bitter taste in the mouths' of all who have heard the news or seen the footage. Nonetheless, there were many other great match-ups, on which...

  • AbbVie a drug manufacturer with a bigger than 4% dividend yield

    Posted March 28, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    AbbVie takes a double whammy price hit, could this be the time to buy? AbbVie is a drug manufacturer that was spun off from Abbot Laboratories in 2013. Last week the US markets dropped more than 6%. On top of that AbbVie announced the slowing down of trials due to disappointing results, on a drug...

  • Dodging the ratings bullet

    Posted March 25, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Moody's kept our sovereign rating unchanged on Friday night, which was largely expected by the majority of market analysts. The upside surprise was the they had changed their outlook from negative to stable, which means that the likelyhood of another downgrade in the near future has diminished ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted March 25, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Fed’s FOMC met for the first time last week under the chairmanship of Jay Powell. As expected, rates were increased by 25bp and the likelihood is that there will be another two or even three more hikes of the same magnitude this year. Powell also mentioned that there are likely to be th...

  • Understanding Naspers

    Posted March 22, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Naspers has become a bit of a focal point over the last few weeks. Most recently Nasper came under a lot of selling pressure when Tencent released their quarterly results and missed topline revenue expectations. Yesterday the stock sold off about 6.5%, about 1.5% more than what Tencent had come of a...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted March 18, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets appear to have largely shrugged off the possibility of large-scale trade wars breaking out, though nervousness and caution still prevail. The coming week contains plenty of economic data and important meetings, notably the Fed’s first FOMC meeting under the chairmanship ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted March 11, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    As mentioned in last week’s note, the possibility of trade retaliation has started to rear its ugly head, catalyzed by the Trump administration proposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. As yet, the rhetoric is louder than any actions but this issue must be watched closely, as it could...

  • Cutting through the noise

    Posted March 8, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    We often get caught up in the noise that the market creates. Noise, simply put, is news and other short term information that goes around. In essense, people get excited about things over the short term, news agencies need readers, TV stations need viewers, radio stations need content. This means th...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted March 4, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    President Cyril Ramaphosa reshuffled his cabinet late on Mon night. This was a compromise reshuffle that left many incompetent ministers still inside cabinet and made no attempt to reduce the size of the overall cabinet. The president was obviously negotiating widely within the ANC NEC up to the ann...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 25, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The global economic growth outlook still appears to be intact, with inflation only making a moderate reappearance. Interestingly, at a Bidcorp presentation last week, CEO Bernard Berson stated that global food inflation remained low but with huge fluctuations in certain foodstuffs. Massmart CEO Guy ...

  • Selling the fact

    Posted February 20, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was a historic week for South Africa. Not only has Zuma become the only person in the whole world to be fired by his own parlamaint twice (once as Deputy by his President and once as President by his Deputy), but we also have a new president and are finally seeing some arrests taking place...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 16, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The momentous events unfolding in South Africa last week clouded almost everything else in the media. But eventually, Cyril Ramaphosa was installed as President and he delivered an outstanding State of the Nation Address in parliament on Fri 16 Feb. This was a business-friendly speech from a busines...

  • Markets last week

    Posted February 13, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It has been a mightly long time since we say a sell off like the one we saw last week. Locally, our market corrected a further 3000 points to make 2 consecutive weeks of bloodshed. Globally, markets sold off as well. It's amazing sometimes what can be ascribed as the catalysts for these moves. The r...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 11, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    February has been especially poor for global equity markets. All of the euphoria that was so apparent in late 2017 and into January of this year has all evaporated, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) experienced a real roller-coaster ride last week. Volatility came back with a vengeance as a...

  • PSGAM Outlook 2018

    Posted February 7, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    PSG Asset Management (PSGAM) gave an outstanding presentation to clients on Wed 7 Feb in Johannesburg. Known for their contra-cyclical approach to investing, CIO Greg Hopkins and Portfolio Manager Shaun le Roux gave their outlook for 2018. And what a view it was-very different to the herd mentality ...

  • Why the American market?

    Posted February 5, 2018 by Bruce Ingram

    Owens & Minor - an undervalued gem Owens & Minor, Inc. is a global healthcare logistics company with limited competition. Market cap is $1,3bil, in existence for more than 135 years and has a decades long history of increasing dividends. Currently this share is significantly undervalued. It has a ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted February 4, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    US nonfarm payrolls in Jan were 200 000, well ahead of the consensus figure of 188 000. The narrowly defined unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with the broader rate, which includes discouraged jobseekers, moving slightly higher to 8.2%. Most importantly, wage growth came in at 2.9%, the highest fi...

  • If you sell, sell!

    Posted January 30, 2018 by Brian Chernotsky

    As we are all now aware, we are experiencing one of the toughest markets in years and so, due to consulting with the experts of the industry we will explain to you how in 99% of cases you can achieve the best offer out of this market. If you decide to sell your property, get the most active agents ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 28, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    At the Allan Gray investment conference in late August last year, American economist Todd Bucholz laid out some clear guidelines that investors should observe when attempting to discern the likely direction of global equity markets. Bucholz reckoned that as long as inflation remained relatively low ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted January 23, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The observation I can make about the last week in general is that it feels like the volatility and volume are coming back. It seems that conditions in our market are improving. it helps of course that last week we saw a growing positive sentiment towards South Africa in general. The Cyril Ramaphosa ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 21, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    The positive momentum of recent weeks on the global economy front continued last week with the release of China’s Q4 2017 and full year (FY) 2017 figures. At 6.9%, 2017 FY growth was well ahead of government estimates. It is also the first time since 2010 that the Chinese economy has expanded ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted January 14, 2018 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, what a week it has been! I guess that if this is the pace that has been set for the year we are in for a very excititng year. Overall, the late December and early January period was probably not too far from the normal Christmas / New Years routine. Marets where thin and bullish. The Santa ra...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 14, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    From a global economic perspective, both developed markets (DM) and emerging markets (EM) are moving nicely into 2018, in the first sustained period of synchronized growth since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. And while inflation has remained stubbornly low in the past few years, it seems...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted January 7, 2018 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets, as anticipated, began the year on a positive note. This is sometimes referred to as “The January Effect”, as the start of the year often reflects optimism. 2018 is likely to be no exception, as President Trump’s tax reforms begin to kick in and in the process...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 30, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Global equity markets ended 2017 at record levels, with the MSCI World Index up 22% to finish at 514.53. The Dow Jones Industrial average (DJIA) finished up 26% higher and London’s FTSE 100 rose by 7.6% to a new high. Perhaps a just a note of realism should be injected here-the FTSE 100 is sti...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 23, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The Week Ahead 23 Dec 2017   As 2017 draws to a close, economic and financial activity slows down. Politically, there is still a lot going on, and many of the issues that were in the headlines at the beginning of the year are still haunting politicians and economists alike. Brexit negotiatio...

  • Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually

    Posted December 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Cyril Ramaphosa-He got there-eventually The news late on Mon 18 Dec that Cyril Ramaphosa had won the election for the13th Presidency of the ANC was met with a huge amount of relief by people in the business community. The rand strengthened significantly and shares dependent on South Africa Incorpor...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 17, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week the US Fed increased short term interest rates by 25 basis points and the likelihood is that there will be a further three rates hikes of the same magnitude in 2018, two in 2019 and two in 2020. The Bank of England left rates unchanged, as did the European Central Bank (ECB). While the ECB...

  • US Interest Rate Hike

    Posted December 14, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The US Federal Reserve (The Fed) raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, as was widely anticipated.It also signalled three 25bp rises next year, two in 2019 and two in 2020. Outgoing Fed chairman Janet Yellen is happy that synchronised global growth will continue over the forecast period and that...

  • October Retail Sales

    Posted December 13, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    SA Retail Sales figures from Stats SA were published today at 13:00. While still in positive territory in real terms, a noticeable slowdown is apparent compared with the previous two months. Year on year growth of 3.2% in Oct compared with restated 5.7% in Sep and 5.4% in Aug. General dealers and re...

  • Markets last week - the Steinhoff show

    Posted December 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Wow! One of the only things I think I can really say. Last week was probably one of the most insane weeks I have ever seen in my life. First and foremost, the Steinhoff move. Never have I ever seen a company as big as Steinhoff fall so hard in such a short period of time. Allogations of balance she...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 10, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was dominated by the spectacular collapse of Steinhoff, which will probably go down in JSE history as its largest corporate scandal. We are far from having all the relevant facts to hand regarding what resulted in CEO Markus Jooste’s sudden resignation but what little we do have sugg...

  • Markets last week

    Posted December 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The breakneck pace at which things changed accelerated last week with the Rand continueing its charge during the course of last week. We saw relentless pressure on tech stocks the world over and at home in Naspers, which dragged the overall index down. This was spurred on by resources stocks coming ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted December 3, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On Sat 2 Dec, Republicans in the US Senate managed a narrow victory regarding President Trump’s tax reforms, ending the debate with a 51-49 win. This gives the president enough time to sign the tax reform bill into law before year end. All other things being equal, this should lend some stimul...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 27, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, where to start? The biggest news is of course that ratings agencies delivered their outlook on South Africa on Friday night. I think maybe we should spend some time trying to understand what had happened. First of all, the market reaction from the Rand was outside of what I had expected would...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 26, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    All eyes were on the release of Moody’s and S&P’s ratings decisions on Fri Nov 24. We had to wait until after the close of markets in New York, thanks to an EU directive on ratings agency releases. There were mixed blessings; S&P downgraded SA’s foreign currency denominated debt by...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Last week was full of exciting events! The most notable for me was Naspers. Tencent had reported quarterly results, which were ahead of expectations, as well as Naspers putting out a trading statement on earnings and a trading statement saying that they will be listing some ADR's in London (this is ...

  • The Week Ahead

    Posted November 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Last week was a tumultuous one in southern African politics, as Robert Mugabe’s ruinous 37 year-old reign was brought to an end by the Zimbabwean military. This unexpected turn of events could have far-reaching effects in and beyond Zimbabwe. And although Mugabe delivered a defiant address on ...

  • The return of market volume

    Posted November 16, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So I don't want to get too optimistic too quickly, but Ihave noticed that the volumes trading though the market has picked up a little in recent weeks. The JSE is by no means trading the volumes it was a year ago, but we are up from trading 1/3rd of the volume to trading 2/3rds of the volume. So it ...

  • Markets last week

    Posted November 7, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    My apologies for updating this so late. Nonetheless, herewith the summary of what I believe had a major influence in moving markets last week in terms of macro events and happenings from around the world.  On Monday we saw SA Private sector credit growing by 5.59% vs 5.19% expectatio...

  • Seemingly unstoppable train

    Posted October 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    In preparation for the upcoming week, it helps to unpack some of the events that took place last week in order to aid with building road maps for what to expect in the week to come. Hence the weekly recap of what happened last week. So when looking at last week, there are a few themes that stood o...

  • What moved the market last week

    Posted October 22, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Although there are certainly many things that I miss each week, there are always a few things that stand out when I think back. The first of these for the week just past was continued robust performance from commodities and commodity stocks. This I believe was a spill over of the better than expecte...

  • South African Retail Sales August

    Posted October 19, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Stats SA released the retail sales figures for August on Tue 17 Oct. These and the previous few months' figures are confusing , to say the least. On a month on month basis, they increased by 2.4% and on a year on year basis, they were up 5.5%. Remember, these are real figures, after deducting inflat...

  • FTSE 100 hits record high

    Posted October 12, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The UK's FTSE 100 index hit a new record high of 7 556 on Thu 12 Oct as UK/EU Brexit talks appeared deadlocked. This in turn led to a weaker GBP which in turn led to the FTSE going higher, as the FTSE's composition is very heavily weighted to foreign companies with USD-denominated earnings. This ...

  • Don't cross the Bitcoin prophets

    Posted October 9, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

    Money functions as a measure of price, a medium of exchange and a store of value. Money evolves all the time. From sea shells to electronic cards money has taken many forms. To measure; store and act as medium of exchange there is a huge amount of trust required. Trust is the main criteria for so...

  • Unwitting holder of Novus shares

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    When I opened my most recent share trading statement I was surprised to find that I am a proud shareholder of Novus Holding shares. I called up my bank to report possible fraud on my account and was informed that all Naspers shareholders gained a proportion of Novus shares due to an unbund...

  • Up, up and away!

    Posted October 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So uuhm, I don't mean to brag, but in the blog I wrote in February, I'd reasoned that it is raltively safe for us to stay bullish and get long resources... well, well, well... what do you know?   A lot has changed though. The most recent things that I think are potential drivers of the market...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester (2)

    Posted October 4, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    On the occasion of what should have been the most important speech of her political life, Theresa May’s address to the Conservative Party Conference at Manchester was a farce-a complete and unmitigated disaster. To be fair, it was not May’s fault, as the content of her speech (for those ...

  • Conservative Party Conference Manchester

    Posted October 1, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Following on from the successful Liberal Democrat annual conference in Bournemouth and the equally successful Labour Party conference in  Brighton last month, beleaguered Conservative Party leader Theresa May kicks off her party’s conference in working-class Manchester on October 1, her 6...

  • Merkel's authority weakened after elections

    Posted September 25, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Politics dominated the weekend, with Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) getting the largest share of the vote in the German general election but falling far short of an overall majority with around 33% of the popular vote. Martin Schulz of the second placed SPD (on 20.7%) has ruled...

  • How Section 12J VCC mitigate risk when investing

    Posted September 22, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

    To protect South African investors Section 12J Venture Capital Companies, (VCC's) are highly regulated and require licenses from both the South African Revenue Service and Financial Services Board. When assessing section 12J funds to invest in, conducting a high level due diligence on the VCC is ...

  • Maintaining the status quo

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The MPC was split 3:3 in its decision to maintain the repo rate at 6.75%. This is not surprising, given the wide variety of factors affecting the decision, as set out in my previous article. Most economists are confidently predicting that the MPC will cut tates by 25 basis points at its November mee...

  • Big day ahead

    Posted September 21, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It is not often that we see such a convergence of big events. Last night we saw the FED (US Central Bank) keep interest rates unchanged, although move toward balance sheet reduction. What this means in lamens terms is that the FED will start selling off the bonds that they bought during their massiv...

  • Will they, won't they?

    Posted September 20, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    The SARB's Monetary Policy Committee has been deliberating on interest rates today and will continue tomorrow until around 15:00, when SARB governor Kganyago will deliver the MPC's decision. In the wake of the lower than anticipated CPI print of 4.8% that came out today, perhaps the MPC will, afte...

  • Discovery Results Presentation

    Posted September 18, 2017 by Chris Gilmour

    Discovery CEO Adrian Gore gave another virtuoso performance to members of the Investment Analyst Society at the Wanderers Club yesterday. Some years ago I was let into a little secret about how seriously Adrian takes these presentations. My source, a former director of Discovery, informed me that ...

  • Take advantage of Section 12J tax relief

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

    Take advantage of 12J tax relief while investing in disruptive technology. Investing in a Section 12J company gives investors access to sectors that are limited or non-existent in the listed space on the JSE. The appeal of investing in a Venture Capital Company (VCC) is not limited to the tax bre...

  • What companies a Section 12J VCC can invest in

    Posted September 14, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

      When looking at the investment rules of Section 12J, Venture Capital Companies follow a strict and clearly defined set of regulations, as well as follow their own mandates for selection of investments. For example, a Section 12J Venture Capital Company's overriding strategy is to provide g...

  • What is Section 12J?

    Posted September 7, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

      What is a Section 12J Venture Capital Company and how does it benefit tax payers? One of the main challenges to the economic growth of small and medium-sized businesses and junior mining exploration is access to equity finance. To assist these sectors in terms of equity finance, in 2009 t...

  • Times like these....

    Posted August 30, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Lunch time on a random Tuesday in August (the 29th to be exact). R5.6bln rand has exhanged hands on the JSE so far today. It sounds like a lot, although in truth is that it is very little when compared to historic volumes. Usually the JSE does around R25bln a day (sometimes as high as R32bln), altho...

  • Why you can’t afford not to have a tax-free savings account

    Posted August 18, 2017 by Igor Rodionov

    National Savings month has passed, and August brings us half way through the tax year. We thought this is a great opportunity to write about Tax-Free Savings to remind you to use your annual contribution limits. Most South Africans use money market or fixed deposit accounts for their saving needs...

  • End of 159 Year Old Stuttafords

    Posted August 2, 2017 by Shameela Essack

    The tragedy of business failure. After 159 years (since 1858) luxury department store in SA, Stuttafords, closed down for good today. A sorry tale of bad blood between shareholders (Ellerines and Rubensteins) who couldn't agree on how to address the crisis of the weakening ZAR, sluggish SA economy ...

  • Things are tough out there

    Posted July 18, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    I would love to say that it has been a wild couple of weeks. I mean, there have been some moves from stocks if you consider the shear size of the moves that have been taking place in the markets. However, I can't say that it has been a good couple of weeks simply because I am starting to get really ...

  • Frustrating times

    Posted May 31, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    The last few weeks, or month and a bit, have been incredibly frustrating in the markets. There is very little volume/liquidity on the JSE, so it's been the stuff of nightmares for traders. I'm not really sure why there is such little volume being traded, but from what I have been hearing, it is the ...

  • So much noise... it's all about France

    Posted April 28, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Long weekends abound... one would think that the market takes it easy in April as most people tend too. But no, the market has been pretty busy. I think though, what I am starting to learn, is that the market is pretty much always busy.   I often think that 'once this xyz event passes, things...

  • Crazy times

    Posted March 29, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Geez what a day!    This market of ours is being thrown around from pillar to post thanks to all the politcal shenanigans that are going on. Some massive moves in the Rand, which leads to massive moves in the underlying market. Frankly it's been a little scary. To think that one man and ...

  • Interest rate divergence bodes bullish

    Posted March 23, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    Well, it's been a busy time for me over the last few weeks. I've been meaning to air out some ideas around interest rates and have not yet really had the time to sit down and do it until now. Sign of the times I suppose. Even though the volumes trading through the market are not all that high, there...

  • The world is partying without us

    Posted March 1, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    It seems that almost the entire world is throwing a big party and we are not invited. The US markets are trading at all time highs. In fact, it set yet another record today. The FTSE recently broke a 10 year, yes, 10 year resistance level and has traded up into record high territory. The German ma...

  • What is EasyEquities?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by INCE|Connect Admin

    Hi and welcome, thank you for stopping by and reading this post.    In this blog post we will be telling you more about EasyEquities and how easy it is to invest in your favourite companies and brands. But before we begin and for those that are not yet investing or perhaps just star...

  • Is it safe to stay bullish?

    Posted February 6, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    US Markets, for the most part, are at all time record highs and are currently in the second longest bull market in history. This is making a great deal of people very bearish, as I suppose, one can understand. The question that I am faced with at the moment though is; do I stay long, or do I move th...

  • African Phoenix

    Posted February 2, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

      So African Phoenix is here and had a rather unspectacular first day of trading. When the stock was still known as ABIL, it closed at 31c and after trading on the 1st of Feb for the first time in a long while, it closed the day at 52c after having traded slightly over 73 million shares for ...

  • What to do ahead of Trump's inauguration

    Posted January 20, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So Trump day is finally here. Later today Donald Trump will be sworn in as President of the United States. I've heard pretty much every conspiracy theory possible so far about what is going to, or could happen today. I'm not sure that I am in the same camp as so many who expect total chaos to unfold...

  • Is chicken in trouble?

    Posted January 12, 2017 by Petri Redelinghuys

    So... Astral Foods just released a statement basically saying that if Eskom cuts off their power due to the manucipality not paying it's electric bill, it would spell disaster for the company. This, linked with stories about potential strike action in the sector due to the importing of chicken from ...

  • Rules for investing in the stock market

    Posted December 19, 2016 by INCE|Connect Admin

    While it may be true that in the stock market arena there is no rule without an exception, here are some principles that may be tough to dispute. Let's quickly go through a few general principles to help investors get a better grasp of how to approach the market from a long-term view.   1. Tr...